Rush Doshi, a former Biden administration official and director at the Council on Foreign Relations, delves into the intricate dynamics of U.S.-China relations. He discusses the significant rise in tariffs on China since 2017 and how Trump's and Biden's foreign policies differ in tackling the China challenge. Doshi explains China's perspective on U.S. military strategies, especially regarding Taiwan, and highlights the importance of cultural understanding for effective diplomacy. He also examines the implications of U.S. policies on global stability and economic strategies.
The significant increase in tariffs from 3% to 39% under Trump's administration aimed to apply pressure on China while diversifying manufacturing.
Both Trump and Biden administrations recognize the challenge posed by China, but they differ in strategies—Trump focused on immediate, competitive actions, while Biden emphasizes a blend of investment and diplomacy.
China's ambitions for global dominance through military and economic means highlight its long-term strategy to surpass U.S. influence, complicating diplomatic relations.
Deep dives
Impact of Trump's Tariffs on China
The introduction of tariffs during Trump's administration has drastically increased the average tariff rate on Chinese goods, climbing from 3% in 2017 to 39% by 2023. This phased approach to tariffs aimed to gradually exert pressure on China for trade negotiations. The tariffs serve dual purposes: diversifying manufacturing away from China and creating leverage for negotiations. However, the long-term effectiveness of these tariffs in achieving a grand deal remains uncertain, as they may create crises that prompt negotiations while also challenging U.S. relations with allies.
Contradictory Signals in U.S.-China Relations
Despite the U.S. portraying a tough stance on China, President Trump's administration sometimes sent mixed signals, indicating a willingness to compromise on significant issues. Historical context reveals that while the administration enacted measures against Chinese corporations like Huawei, it simultaneously sought favorable trade agreements with President Xi. This dichotomy complicates the perception of a cohesive U.S. doctrine on China, suggesting instead that Trump’s views are shaped by consistent biases, such as respect for power in international relations and prioritizing tariffs. The lack of a definitive doctrine complicates the understanding of U.S. objectives towards China.
Differences Between Trump and Biden's China Policies
Both the Trump and Biden administrations recognize the need for a tougher approach to China but differ fundamentally in their strategies. Trump's approach, characterized by immediate actions like tariffs, was rooted in a competitive mindset, while Biden's is designed around a trifecta of investing domestically, aligning with allies, and competing internationally. This change indicates a blending of diplomatic engagement with competitive actions, illustrating that the Biden administration seeks a balance that emphasizes cooperation alongside competition. The bipartisan consensus established during Trump’s term has continued, revealing a shared understanding of China as a long-term challenge.
China's Global Ambitions
China’s goals extend beyond regional hegemony, with a clear intention to dominate various global spheres—economically, militarily, and technologically. China has made significant investments in global bases and sought military presence around the world, indicating aspirations for worldwide influence. Economic strategies focus on creating dependency through global supply chains, a departure from principles of positive-sum interaction. Observations of China’s actions reveal a long-term strategy aimed at surpassing the U.S. in power and influence, contrasting sharply with arguments for more limited ambitions.
The Complexities of Diplomatic Approaches
Current strains in U.S.-China relations raise questions about the effectiveness of diplomatic approaches from both sides. While the U.S. emphasizes competition, it must also navigate the complex dynamics of alliances without alienating partners. The prior use of aggressive diplomacy, such as wolf warrior tactics, has diminished, as countries assess their strategic interests more cautiously. The political landscape surrounding climate cooperation and economic strategies further complicates diplomatic engagement, requiring a more nuanced understanding of each nation's priorities and perceptions.
With so much of the focus in recent weeks on the Trump administration’s policies toward Europe, where does that leave the broader trajectory of the U.S.-China relationship? Expert and former Biden administration official Rush Doshi sits down with Ravi Agrawal to discuss.
Doshi is currently the C.V. Starr senior fellow for Asia studies and director of the China Strategy Initiative at the Council on Foreign Relations.
