Guest, Chase Taylor, a favorite chartist at Pinecone Macro, discusses charts on commodities like cotton, sugar, and copper, as well as cannabis, home builders, and bitcoin. They analyze market conditions, predict movements in the S&P, discuss interest rate predictions and low market volatility. They also delve into the recent strength of cotton futures, technical outlook and home builders, and the state of crude oil and uranium markets.
The market sentiment suggests a potential reversal towards the end of the week, signaling a possible leg lower.
The charts indicate bullish signals for cotton and sugar, while copper demonstrates a bearish outlook, providing insights into the future direction of these commodities.
Deep dives
Market Sentiment and S&P Outlook
The podcast discusses the current market sentiment, specifically focusing on the S&P 500. There is a debate on whether the market will go through a leg lower or whip around before continuing its upward trend. Factors affecting the market include oil prices, the dollar, and interest rates. The guest speaker leans towards a potential reversal towards the end of the week, but generally believes it's time for the market to head lower.
Rate Hike Speculation
The podcast explores the speculation surrounding future rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. While the CME futures indicate a 70% probability of rates remaining unchanged at the present meeting, there is a growing possibility of a rate hike in the November meeting. The guest speaker is uncertain about the Fed's decision, expecting a 60-40 or 70-30 chance for rates to remain unchanged or to be hiked, respectively. The outcome will heavily depend on economic data and developments leading up to the November meeting.
Chart Analysis on Commodities and Securities
The podcast covers various charts, including commodities like cotton and sugar, as well as securities like Bitcoin, home builders, and a cannabis ETF. Cotton's chart indicates potential for further upside due to weather-related issues affecting production in Texas and other regions. Sugar's chart also demonstrates bullish signals as production struggles in India due to a severe drought. On the other hand, copper's chart suggests a bearish outlook due to a global slowdown and the absence of substantial demand. The cannabis ETF experienced a significant reversal, driven by positive policy discussions regarding cannabis legislation and banking access. Lastly, the chart analysis for home builders reveals a potential double top formation and notes the cyclicality of the sector. Overall, the charts provide insights into the future direction of these commodities and securities.
This week on the Market Huddle +, we have the pleasure of welcoming back to the show, one of our favourite chartists Pinecone Macro’s, Chase Taylor. We take a look the charts on commodities like Cotton, sugar and copper as well as the charts on cannabis, homebuilders and bitcoin.