Rick Rule: This Asset Class Is "The Cheapest I've Ever Seen It"
Jan 7, 2025
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In this conversation, Rick Rule, a prominent natural resource investor known for his expertise in gold and oil & gas, reveals his insights on current investment landscapes. He highlights the immense opportunities in the undervalued gold mining sector, suggesting it's the cheapest he's ever seen. Rick discusses the potential resurgence of North American energy, the balance between environmental policies and resource access, and encourages strategic investments as inflation concerns rise. His optimism for gold as a hedge against economic instability is particularly compelling.
Gold mining companies are currently undervalued, presenting unique investment opportunities that could yield significant returns if gold prices rise.
The oil and gas sector is poised for growth due to supportive regulatory changes and attractive returns on capital amid favorable market conditions.
Public sentiment is shifting positively towards energy production and deregulation, potentially enhancing growth in natural resource sectors in the U.S. and Canada.
Deep dives
Gold Stocks Are Historically Cheap
Gold stocks are currently at historic lows relative to gold prices when assessed on an enterprise value to net asset value basis. The speaker suggests this offers a unique opportunity for investors, highlighting that the prices for top-tier gold producers are exceptionally low right now. If gold prices rise, as expected, these producers could experience significant growth, making them a wise investment choice. Overall, the environment for gold stocks presents a unique moment where investor interest and price potential can align to create substantial gains.
Current State of the Global Economy
The global economy remains surprisingly resilient despite ongoing geopolitical challenges, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. There is a prevailing sense of confidence among investors in the U.S. dollar, fostering a flow of funds into American capital markets as interest rates continue to be kept low. While this easy credit environment is beneficial in the short term, there are concerns about future inflationary pressure that may arise as a consequence of current monetary policies. The speaker's cautious approach suggests that the investor psychology surrounding major market players may not be sustainable in the long run.
Oil and Gas Investment Opportunities
The speaker expresses optimism about the oil and gas industry, citing low expectations and high probabilities for success. Returns on capital in this sector are currently attractive, and certain companies are set to generate considerable free cash flow due to their sustained production levels. Given the supportive regulatory environment under the upcoming administration, combined with a potential decrease in political constraints, the oil and gas sector holds great promise for investors. Changes in both U.S. and Canadian energy policies may lead to a significant rebound in production levels, benefiting investors in this space.
Inflation and Cost of Capital Concerns
Current inflation statistics are viewed with skepticism, with the speaker arguing that the real inflation rate is likely much higher than reported figures. This situation creates a dilemma for investors, as the cost of capital rises in response to inflation expectations while investment opportunities in traditional assets become limited. The long end of the yield curve indicates high rates for energy-related capital, complicating financing and investment in the natural resources sector. Rising costs of production and capital may hamper growth in the energy sector if consumer demand increases without adequate investment.
Public Sentiment and Energy Policies
There appears to be a shift in public sentiment towards more favorable views on energy production and deregulation. This could pave the way for a more robust energy sector in both the U.S. and Canada, particularly concerning natural gas and oil resources. The importance of regulatory changes is emphasized, noting that public acceptance and political willingness play critical roles in energy production growth. As society shifts its approach to energy, there is potential for significant advancements in both production and environmental management.
Well it's a new year. And in just two weeks, a new American Administration as well.
What kind of impact will President-Elect Trump's policies likely have on natural resources, the "real things" that power the global economy?
To find out, we're fortunate to be joined by Rick Rule, one of the world's greatest living natural resource investors, and a heck of a gentleman, to boot.
Rick sees a lot of opportunity for investors ahead in oil & gas.
But the real deals right now are in the gold mining companies, which he reports are the most undervalued he's seen in his long career.
Here are the links to Rick's events mentioned in this discussion:
https://thoughtfulmoney.com/rulebootcamp
https://thoughtfulmoney.com/rulesyndicate
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