Bloomberg Surveillance Traders Pare Bets on December Fed Cut
27 snips
Nov 14, 2025 Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, shares insights on market volatility and Fed rate cut probabilities, emphasizing earnings strength as a stabilizing force. Francisco Blanch, from Bank of America Securities, discusses the bullish outlook on copper and silver due to AI demand, while explaining U.S. gas price dynamics amidst rising LNG exports. Hessam Nadji, CEO of Marcus & Millichap, analyzes the resurgence of retail real estate and the nuances between urban and suburban performance, highlighting the impact of improving financing conditions.
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Fed Cut Odds Have Narrowed
- The Fed's internal balance shifted more hawkish after the shutdown, cutting December cut odds to about 50/50.
- That uncertainty is rattling markets and raising volatility around policy expectations.
Earnings Can Quell AI Fears
- Market volatility will likely ease once policy direction and key earnings (like NVIDIA) clarify investor sentiment.
- AI-related narratives can flip market direction quickly if earnings surprise to the upside.
Earnings Drive S&P Performance
- Positive economic growth sustaining positive earnings growth is the core support for equities, especially the S&P 500.
- If earnings remain positive in 2026, markets should continue an upward but noisy trajectory.
