Bloomberg Talks Lori Calvasina Talks Recession Pricing, S&P
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Apr 7, 2025 
Lori Calvasina, Chief US Equity Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, shares insights on recession pricing and its potential impact on the S&P 500. She argues that full recession pricing could position the index at 4,200. Calvasina discusses the interplay between credit markets and equity valuation, especially for small vs. large caps. She also addresses earnings risks amid challenging economic conditions and highlights value opportunities in Ford and small-cap stocks, emphasizing the significance of market signals during such fluctuations.
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S&P 500 Bear Market
- The S&P 500 is down three standard deviations, signaling a bear market.
- Lori Calvasina joins to discuss market conditions and potential recession pricing.
Credit Market and Equity Market
- The focus shifts to less profitable companies and their performance in a deteriorating credit market.
- The question arises whether the deteriorating credit market will impact the equity market.
Small Caps and Recession Risks
- Small caps showed resilience before the "Rose Garden" event but have since declined.
- This suggests increasing recession risks are being priced in, despite small caps being relatively cheap.