Sinica Podcast Eric Olander: After the Maduro Capture — Assessing China's Real Exposure in Venezuela
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Jan 8, 2026 Eric Olander, host of the China Global South Podcast, dives deep into post-capture dynamics following Nicolás Maduro's arrest. He examines how China interprets U.S. actions in Venezuela and its implications for international law and regional security. Olander highlights China's nuanced understanding of Latin America and challenges the idea of fixed 'spheres of influence.' He discusses Beijing's political tactics, the economic vulnerabilities in its Venezuelan dealings, and how military planners are analyzing these shifts. The conversation reveals the complexities of China’s engagement in the global South.
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Beijing's Calm, Contextual Read
- Beijing reads the Maduro capture soberly and not as a direct attack on China.
- Chinese officials see it as one event in a continuum of Trump-era surprises rather than a China-specific campaign.
Taiwan Analogies Miss Chinese Logic
- Popular Chinese social media framed the raid with Taiwan analogies that Beijing did not officially endorse.
- Chinese elites view Taiwan as a domestic issue, so the Venezuela–Taiwan comparisons largely miss Chinese strategic logic.
Expertise Grew But Remains Uneven
- China's expertise on Latin America has grown but lagged earlier engagement in Africa and remains uneven.
- Institutional capacity expanded after the mid-2000s, yet Chinese FDI in the region remains low and concentrated in extractives.