Geopolitics Decanted with Dmitri Alperovitch What Happens if the Supreme Court Kills Trump’s Tariffs?
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Nov 15, 2025 In this insightful discussion, Sarah Stewart, CEO at Silverado and former U.S. trade negotiator, alongside John Corrigan, Senior Director for Trade Strategy and ex-U.S. Trade Representative, delve into the potential repercussions of the Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariffs. They examine the stark possibility of significant tariff refunds if overturned and explore alternative tariff strategies such as Sections 338 and 421. The conversation sheds light on complex legal landscapes and outlines how to maintain tariff leverage, regardless of the Court's decision.
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IEPA Tariffs Face Serious Judicial Doubt
- The administration used IEPA to impose broad reciprocal tariffs without explicit congressional authorization for tariffs.
- The Supreme Court displayed skepticism and there's at least a 50% chance the IEPA approach will be struck down.
Tariff Toolbox Is Broader Than IEPA
- Multiple tariff authorities already exist, including Sections 301 and 232, covering different scopes and products.
- Even if IEPA duties fall, many other tariffs remain in place and can cover substantial trade.
Watch The Court Timeline Closely
- Expect a Supreme Court decision potentially by Q1 2026, though it could come sooner given revenue stakes.
- Monitor ruling timing because refunds and monthly revenue (~$16B) could push the Court to act faster.