Audio Briefs “Russia’s Grinding War in Ukraine”: Audio Brief with Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe
Jan 30, 2026
A concise look at Russia's slow, costly advances in Ukraine and how battlefield rhetoric diverges from the data. Discussion of economic strain, shrinking manufacturing, and weak tech and AI standings. Examination of vulnerabilities like the shadow oil fleet and human costs that could be targeted. A call for sustained U.S. and European multi-year support to raise the cost of continued offensives.
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Extraordinary Human Toll
- Since February 2022, Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties, a level unseen among major powers since WWII.
- At current rates, combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could reach 2 million by spring 2026.
Minimal Gains, Massive Cost
- Russia's battlefield gains have been minimal despite heavy rhetoric from Moscow and some U.S. policymakers.
- Russian forces seized less than 1.5% of Ukraine in 24 months while advancing only 15–70 meters per day in major offensives.
Economic Stagnation Signals Decline
- Russia's economy has held up short-term but shows sharp long-term declines in productivity and manufacturing.
- Indicators include 2025 manufacturing contractions and IMF forecasts of near-zero growth in 2026.