Levitan's Solo Pod: Did Bijan Robinson Sit To Ruin Your Props? Plus Hand Washing Deep Dive (Episode 648)
Oct 24, 2023
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In this episode, Adam Levitan discusses his performance in FanDuel cash, the controversial Bijan Robinson Gate, and answers listener questions. He also explores the unique case of late swapping in a fantasy football tournament and the importance of opportunity over talent in running backs. The episode covers topics like YouTube video, NBA DFS product, and hand washing. It also delves into finding an edge in sports markets by disagreeing with consensus and understanding range of outcomes. Finally, they discuss predicting target shares in fantasy football, funeral attendance, eliminating the tight end position, and strategies for best ball drafts and daily fantasy sports.
Controversial handling of Bijan Robinson's absence leads to confusion and frustration among fans and bettors.
Late swap opportunity in DFS allows savvy players to pivot to backups with favorable matchups and low prices, giving them a significant advantage.
Deep dives
Bijon Robinson's Absence and the Falcons' Handling of the Situation
Bijon Robinson, a player for the Falcons, missed a game due to illness. However, the team did not properly report his potential absence to the NFL. This led to confusion and frustration among fans and bettors. While it is understandable that the coach wanted to prioritize Robinson's health, the way the situation was handled was questionable, with Robinson only playing a limited number of snaps and receiving one touch.
Late Swap Strategy in DFS
Week seven of the NFL season featured a rare late swap situation with DK Metcalf being a game-time decision. This presented an opportunity for savvy DFS players to pivot to Jackson Smith-Njigba, Metcalf's backup, who had a favorable matchup and low price. In high-stakes contests, many players successfully utilized late swap to roster Smith-Njigba, resulting in increased ownership. However, at lower stakes, players missed out on this advantageous swap, offering a significant advantage to those who utilized it effectively.
The Importance of Valuing Opportunity over Talent in NFL Fantasy
A reminder was given about the volatility and variance in the NFL, specifically regarding player performance. The example of Deontay Foreman was used, highlighting how he underperformed in one week but excelled the following week. The lesson learned was to prioritize opportunity over talent when making fantasy football decisions. Additionally, the usefulness of projections, tools, and simulations in making more informed and data-driven decisions was emphasized.
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