

Insurgent Armies and State Formation after Victory
Oct 3, 2025
In this discussion, Dr. Philip A. Martin, an expert in political violence and civil wars, teams up with Brigadier General Allen J. Pepper, a seasoned commander familiar with African conflicts. They delve into the puzzling aftermath of victorious rebel groups, exploring why some maintain loyalty to new governments while others rebel again. The conversation reveals how wartime experiences shape military cohesion and the pitfalls of power-sharing. They also highlight the complexities of external assistance and its effects on post-conflict stability, offering insightful recommendations for policymakers.
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Wartime Threats Shape Postwar Obedience
- Wartime threat intensity shapes rebel organization and future military obedience.
- High-threat wars force inclusive leadership and mobile commanders, which builds post-war loyalty to rulers.
Mobility Reduces Local Power Bases
- Mobile wartime governance prevents commanders from building durable local fiefdoms.
- Commanders dependent on central leaders are likelier to accept integration into a state military.
CAR's Rapid Fragmentation
- In the Central African Republic the Celica coalition dissolved within a year after taking power in 2013.
- Rebel factions scattered quickly when the central leader lost power, showing weak wartime cohesion.