The podcast discusses the concept of collateral rehypothecation in the US financial system and its impact on supply elasticity. It also explores the functioning of the shadow banking system and its relationship to US treasuries, highlighting the importance of understanding these dynamics. The speaker also provides updates on recent action in the Bitcoin space, including Gary Gensler's testimony and the demand for a Bitcoin ETF approval.
Collateral reuse in the repo market creates an elastic supply of treasuries in stable times but leads to a decline in elasticity and treasury supply during times of crisis or tighter conditions.
The decline in elasticity through collateral reuse has a greater influence on treasury yields than factors like QE or issuance, and the decrease in collateral reuse combined with increasing demand for treasuries drives yields down.
Deep dives
The Impact of Collateral Reuse on Treasury Yields
The episode discusses the impact of collateral reuse on treasury yields. It explains that rehypotication of treasuries in the repo market allows for elastic supply when the market is stable. However, in times of crisis or tighter conditions, supply becomes more inelastic as collateral chains shorten. This leads to a decline in elasticity and a decrease in treasury supply. The episode asserts that the decline in elasticity has a greater influence on treasury yields than factors such as QE or issuance. It also highlights the significant amount of rehypoticated treasuries in the market, estimated to be around $220 trillion, which far exceeds the market impact of government debt or Federal Reserve policies.
The Relationship between Collateral Reuse and Market Stress
The episode explains that collateral reuse creates collateral chains in the market, enhancing efficiency and liquidity during stable times. However, when market stress or the anticipation of crisis increases, collateral reuse declines and fragility amplifies. It is noted that rising yields initially correlate with an increase in supply relative to demand. However, as collateral reuse decreases and supply becomes more restricted, demand for treasuries from market participants increases, leading to a decline in yields. The episode emphasizes that the market, not the Federal Reserve, drives rates and that the decline in elasticity through collateral reuse is a key determinant for the long-term path of rates.
The Relationship between Credit Events and Treasury Yields
The episode analyzes historical data to demonstrate that credit events do not necessarily coincide with rising rates. It explains that credit events, such as the LTCM bailout, the dot-com recession, the financial crisis, and the COVID crash, often occur when treasury yields are already declining or have reached a tipping point. Phase one is characterized by rising yields, while phase two occurs when a tipping point is reached, and yields start to decline. The episode suggests that the current market is in phase one, with yields expected to decline due to decreasing collateral reuse and the resulting increase in demand for direct treasuries.
Bitcoin & Markets: Macro, money, geopolitics and news
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In this episode, I discuss collateral re-use and collateral multiplier. Similar to Fractional Reserve Banking, collateral rehypothication creates a hyper-elastic environment for US Treasuries, in good times. In bad times, this behemoth takes time to turn, but when it does collateral chains start to shorten and their is a move into the primary market for US Treasuries. This causes rates to at first look like a dollar shortage and turn into a collateral shortage, a certain period prior to credit events or recession. Right now, with rates still going up, we can know the shadow banking system has not turned yet, and we have at least 6-12 months left before a recession will hit. Enjoy.
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--- Disclaimer: The content of Bitcoin & Markets shall not be construed as tax, legal or financial advice. Do you own research. https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/disclaimer/
#bitcoin #macro #geopolitics
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