Concerns over US Growth as US Tariffs Appear More Targeted
Mar 24, 2025
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Joe Lavorgna, Chief Economist at SMBC Nikko Securities and former Trump economic advisor, passionately argues that new targeted tariffs could herald a 'Golden Age' for the U.S. economy without causing inflation. He outlines the implications of Trump’s upcoming announcements on trade relations. Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, shares her insights on the recession risks and market anxieties tied to these tariffs, while dissecting the contrasting fortunes of tech stocks versus broader market indices. A lively discussion on navigating economic uncertainty unfolds.
Joe Lavorgna argues that Trump's targeted tariff initiatives could lead to a bullish economic environment for the US, potentially avoiding inflation.
Liz Ann Sonders highlights investor anxiety over a potential US recession amid upcoming tariff announcements, emphasizing the need for clarity in tax policy.
Henrietta Treyz discusses Congress's crucial role in shaping US trade policy, particularly concerning tariffs and the implications for economic growth.
Deep dives
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Insights into Economic Uncertainty
The discussion highlights the detrimental effects of political and economic uncertainty on investor confidence and economic growth, particularly in relation to tax policy. Concerns are elevated as businesses struggle with the unclear direction of tax legislation, which could impact capital expenditures and overall economic performance. The necessity for Congress to establish clear tax guidelines is emphasized to foster a stable investment climate. The narrative suggests that understanding these uncertainties will enable companies and investors to adapt their strategies more effectively.
Impact of Tariffs on the Economy
The implications of tariffs on consumer prices and the overall economy are critically assessed, indicating that while tariffs may increase prices, potential benefits for workers need to be weighed. There's a suggestion that the short-term impacts could be offset by longer-term productivity gains, especially in industries aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing. The interplay between tariffs and inflation is explored, indicating that while tariffs may pose a risk, other economic factors, such as falling oil prices, could alleviate inflationary pressures. Businesses are encouraged to brace for volatility while navigating this tariff-laden landscape.
Long-Term Fiscal Responsibilities
The need for responsible fiscal policy is underscored, especially concerning waste and inefficiency in governmental spending. Historical data indicates substantial potential savings that could be achieved by eliminating various types of government waste, which could significantly aid in addressing fiscal deficits. A call for not only budgetary reforms but also accountability in spending practices reflects a critical viewpoint on current government operations. The dialogue suggests that understanding and implementing effective spending policies will ultimately benefit the economy and promote sustainable growth.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMarch 24th, 2025 Featuring:
1) Joe Lavorgna, Chief Economist at SMBC Nikko Securities and former Trump economic advisor, on why he believes Trump's tariff initiatives will ultimately prove bullish for the US economy, won't be inflationary, and could usher in a new economic "Golden Age" in the US. President Trump is preparing to announce "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, targeting countries that have tariffs or barriers on US goods, but excluding some nations and blocs. The tariffs are expected to take effect immediately and may strain ties with allied nations, but the administration is not planning separate sectoral-specific tariffs at the same event.
2) Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins for an extended discussion on fears of a US recession and the outlook for equities. Markets are still on edge ahead of Trump’s April 2 deadline to impose reciprocal tariffs on a raft of other countries, but officials familiar with the matter said the announcement is shaping up to be more targeted than previously thought.
3) Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners, on the latest DC headlines and Congress' role in US trade policy amid looming tariffs and updates on negotiations over the war in Ukraine. US and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia for closed-door talks, following American and Ukrainian teams' discussions the previous day. The talks aim to achieve a ceasefire in the war
4) Stephen Trent, Analyst at Citi, discusses the outlook for individual US airlines in 2025 after recent poor guidance. American Airlines and Delta Air Lines have slashed their financial forecasts, citing a rapid reversal of demand trends and a broad weakness in consumer spending. Poor recent updates from airlines and retailers have added to market sentiment.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including young investors' favorite retirement vehicle and the advantage Duke has in the NCAA tournament.