Pollercoaster with Dan Pfeiffer - Preview | Trump leading Biden?
Dec 28, 2023
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Dan Pfeiffer and Cornell Belcher analyze the latest polls showing Trump leading Biden. They discuss the 'Polar Coaster' concept, historical comparisons, and challenges in polling methods. They also highlight Trump and Biden's advantages on different issues and explore presidential approval ratings and millennial voters' preferences.
Media should focus on candidates' differences on important issues rather than just stating who is leading in the polls.
Good polling is both a science and an art, requiring proper definition of the electorate and correctly predicting turnout.
Deep dives
The Misuse of Polls in Media Narrative
The podcast episode discusses the misuse of polls in driving media stories and narratives. The speaker criticizes the mainstream media for focusing too much on polling and the horse race aspect, instead of delving into the candidates' differences on important issues. The speaker argues that polling should inform the public about the implications of each candidate's presidency rather than just stating who is ahead in the polls. Additionally, the speaker emphasizes that polls this far out from an election are not predictive and that they can often be wrong. The importance of defining the terms of the debate and focusing on who will fight for the middle and working-class voters is highlighted.
The Challenges and Art of Polling
The episode delves into the challenges of polling and highlights that good polling is both a science and an art. The importance of properly defining the electorate and correctly predicting turnout is discussed. The speaker emphasizes that good polling is still based on the theory of randomness, even with the consideration of reaching diverse and younger segments through new technology. The episode also notes that when polling is wrong, it is often due to incorrect assumptions about the electorate. The focus is on how polling can identify campaign problems and opportunities and guide a campaign strategy.
Biden's Economic Messaging and Young Voter Concerns
The episode explores Biden's economic messaging and the importance of defining the terms of the debate. While Trump may have advantages on generic economic questions, the speaker argues that Biden should focus on fighting for middle-class and working-class people. The episode highlights the need to emphasize that Biden will fight for people like them, rather than solely focusing on who would be better in the economy overall. Furthermore, the episode raises concerns about Biden's current standing among young voters, citing the Israeli-Gaza conflict as a factor that impacts their perception. However, the episode suggests that voters generally prioritize domestic issues over foreign policy.
Here’s a holiday sneak peek of Crooked's new exclusive series for Friends of the Pod, POLLERCOASTER. In this preview, host Dan Pfeiffer and guest Cornell Belcher (Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies and former pollster for Obama) analyze the latest polls, unpack what it means for Trump to be leading Biden, and explore where former incumbent Presidents Obama, Clinton, and others were at this point in their presidencies. New episodes of Pollercoaster drop every other week, so if you want to hear the rest of the episode (or future ones), be sure to sign up for Friends of the Pod at crooked.com/friends.
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