What the Future of Work Means for the Future of Real Estate: A Conversation with Dror Poleg
Feb 14, 2024
auto_awesome
Thesis Driven Editor Brad Hargreaves speaks with Dror Poleg, an influential thinker on the future of work and real estate. They discuss the impact of remote work, the nonlinear economy, the rise of branded operators in the office market, Japan as a model for cities and economies, the global impact of remote work and AI on income distribution, the future of work winners, potential changes to real estate policies, and the impact of AI on the built world.
Remote work trends have led to a comeback of cities, driven by the demand for intense interaction, specialized talent, and larger labor pools.
The shift towards a nonlinear economy, driven by virtual, digital, and intellectual production, requires flexibility, lack of boundaries, and the ability to plan on-demand.
The future of offices lies in purpose-driven, networked spaces that cater to the specific needs of different customer groups and require innovation, adaptability, and asset management as businesses.
Deep dives
The Rise of Remote Work and its Impact on Real Estate
The podcast discusses the rise of remote work and its implications for the real estate industry. The guest highlights that remote work trends were already on the rise before the pandemic, but the pandemic accelerated them further. The introduction of internet and technology initially led experts to predict that cities and offices would become less important, but the opposite happened. The guest explains that cities made a comeback, driven by the demand for intense interaction, specialized talent, and the largest labor pools. However, cracks started to appear in this paradigm around 2015, with some superstar cities losing population and companies showing a preference for hiring from larger pools. The podcast explores how remote work and technology have transformed the office market, making it more dynamic and requiring new approaches from landlords and developers.
The Nonlinear Economy and the Future of Work
The podcast delves into the concept of the nonlinear economy and its impact on work. The guest explains that the linear economy, based on traditional production processes and predictable outcomes, is being replaced by a nonlinear economy driven by virtual, digital, and intellectual production. In this new economy, metrics and indicators are less valuable, and outcomes are harder to predict. The guest emphasizes that the nature of work is changing, with more jobs becoming scalable and adaptable to remote work. The podcast highlights the importance of flexibility, lack of boundaries, and the ability to plan on-demand. The guest also mentions that the shift towards distributed work and flexible arrangements is driven not only by employee preferences but also by changes in the nature of the economy itself.
The Future of Offices and Real Estate Development
The podcast explores the future of offices and real estate development in light of remote work and changing economic dynamics. The guest discusses the decline of the traditional office market and the need for purpose-driven offices. They suggest that the office of the future is a network rather than a physical place, catering to the productivity and happiness of employees wherever they are. The guest emphasizes the importance of understanding the specific needs of different customer groups and providing tailored solutions. They also discuss the role of branded operators in the future of office spaces, highlighting the need for partnerships, collaborations, and innovative approaches to real estate development. The podcast advocates for a shift in mindset for office owners, emphasizing the need for innovation, adaptability, and the management of assets as businesses rather than traditional assets.
The Impact of AI and the Nonlinear Economy
The podcast delves into the impact of AI in the context of the nonlinear economy. The guest highlights the tremendous capabilities of AI and its potential to transform various industries and workflows. They discuss how AI is enabling the scalability of businesses and jobs, providing unlimited firepower and creating new competition dynamics. The guest emphasizes that AI is not only directly replacing jobs but also enabling new approaches and making traditional roles redundant. They mention the need for individuals and companies to adapt to the changing dynamics and explore new opportunities for collaboration and innovation. The podcast underscores the risks and uncertainties associated with AI but also emphasizes the potential for more opportunities and a more equal world.
The Winners and Losers in the Changing Landscape
The podcast explores the winners and losers in the changing landscape of remote work, AI, and the nonlinear economy. The guest discusses the potential for more opportunity and scalability in the new economy, suggesting that anyone can benefit if they focus on specific customer needs and cater to them better than anyone else. However, they also highlight the polarization and inequality that can arise as a result of these changes. The podcast emphasizes the importance of policy solutions, such as universal basic income and equal access to resources, to navigate and mitigate these challenges. It concludes on the note that the future holds both excitement and potential for a more vibrant and innovative society.
In this week’s episode, Thesis Driven Editor Brad Hargreaves speaks with one of the most respected thinkers on the future of work and real estate, Dror Poleg. Dror is the author of the acclaimed books After Office (2023) and Rethinking Real Estate (2019).
Through their conversation, Brad and Dror dive into how macroeconomic factors and advances in technology influence how businesses source, value and manage talent which in turn drives how we work, where we work and where we want to live. More from the episode …
Why “WFH” isn’t just a pandemic trend but the most recent chapter in two decades of shifting how we distribute workforces
How technology has fundamentally upended the linear, predictable nature with which we once approached investment expectations, upside / downside risk, talent priorities, management … and yes, office space.
How this will impact the ecosystem of office real estate from how developers and owners evaluate deals to how banks underwrite risk.
Why the future of office winners will not be who calculates the optimal ratio of in-office vs. WFH time but those who strategically use office space to solve (dynamically) for the specific needs of specific teams and specific times.
Why the office market will start to look more like the hotel market.
The critical importance of central business districts and who is getting it right.
Why the better conversation is less about the future of the office but more about the extraordinary opportunities that spaces of the future will present as our work patterns and lifestyles change - and why value will accrue to the real estate leaders who move beyond increasingly outdated worldviews about urban and office spaces.
Why the future of cities is still bright.
Headlines and popular opinion lean “doom and gloom” on the topic but Poleg’s takes in this podcast - as in his books - will likely leave you feeling more inspired and creative about how you’re thinking about the future of work.
Excited to see you on the next episode of the Thesis Driven Leader Series - till then, check out the Thesis Driven weekly newsletter at https://www.thesisdriven.com/
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode