Edurne Zoco, an analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights specializing in solar supply chains, joins Michael Parr, Executive Director of the Ultra Low Carbon Solar Alliance. They discuss the anticipated trade tariffs and their impact on U.S. solar manufacturing. Zoco reveals how module prices in the U.S. are significantly higher than in China and Europe, while Parr offers insights on policy changes affecting market dynamics. They also explore the implications of the Inflation Reduction Act and the competitive edge needed to bolster U.S. solar against Chinese dominance.
The U.S. solar manufacturing sector faces heightened production costs and supply chain disruptions due to recent trade restrictions and tariffs on solar cells.
Despite the Inflation Reduction Act promoting local manufacturing, inconsistencies in cell production and tariff implications could hinder future growth in the U.S. solar industry.
Deep dives
Challenges in U.S. Solar Manufacturing
The U.S. solar manufacturing sector faces significant challenges due to recent trade restrictions and import tariffs on solar cells from Southeast Asian countries. Tariffs on suppliers from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, which have escalated since the Inflation Reduction Act, are contributing to increased production costs and supply chain disruptions. With a rise in imports of solar cells by 70% in 2024, these tariffs could severely limit the availability of essential components needed for domestic production. Consequently, while the module production capacity in the U.S. has increased to around 40 gigawatts, there remains a tighter supply of cells, necessitating imports from non-restricted countries like India and South Korea to maintain market stability.
Impact of the Inflation Reduction Act
The Inflation Reduction Act has been pivotal in promoting local solar manufacturing through tax credits and incentives, leading to numerous announcements for new facilities. However, its effectiveness has been inconsistent, particularly concerning the production of solar cells and wafers, which continue to lag behind module capacity. Recent uncertainties surrounding the deployment of IRA funds have created apprehension among investors, potentially stalling future manufacturing expansion. This rollercoaster of support and uncertainty may lead to significant delays in solar manufacturing projects, ultimately threatening the growth trajectory of the U.S. solar industry.
Price Dynamics and Market Outlook
Due to import tariffs and a limited supply of domestically produced components, the price of solar modules in the United States remains substantially higher than in global markets, with costs reaching up to 60 cents per watt for fully manufactured products. The price assessments indicate a marked difference, as modules in China remain competitively priced around 9 cents per watt. As the U.S. gears up for a tighter market with potential supply shortages in the coming years, there will likely be upward pressure on prices. The anticipated increase in costs, coupled with ongoing tariff implications, poses a risk of hindering installation forecasts and overall market growth.
With new tariffs anticipated and a domestic manufacturing sector just ramping up, US solar manufacturers are facing trade headwinds as well as opportunities.
Meanwhile, prices for modules in the US are substantially higher than in China and Europe.
S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts Joe Steveni and Edurne Zoco lay out what to watch in the US solar supply chains and discuss the future of the Inflation Reduction Act and trade restrictions. Price reporter Karen Rivera describes what makes US panels so much more expensive, and Michael Parr of the Ultra Low Carbon Solar Alliance gives an industry perspective on the market dynamics.
Energy Evolution has merged with Platts Future Energy, and episodes are now published on Tuesdays.
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode