a16z General Partners Martin Casado and Anjney Midha join Erik Torenberg to unpack one of the most dramatic shifts in tech policy in recent memory: the move from “pause AI” to “win the AI race.”

They trace the evolution of U.S. AI policy—from executive orders that chilled innovation, to the recent AI Action Plan that puts scientific progress and open source at the center. The discussion covers how technologists were caught off guard, why open source was wrongly equated to nuclear risk, and what changed the narrative—including China's rapid progress.

The conversation also explores:

How and why the AI discourse got captured by doomerism
What “marginal risk” really means—and why it matters
Why open source AI is not just ideology, but business strategy
How government, academia, and industry are realigning after a fractured few years
The effect of bad legislation—and what comes next

Whether you're a founder, policymaker, or just trying to make sense of AI's regulatory future, this episode breaks it all down.

Timecodes:

0:00 Introduction & Setting the Stage

0:39 The Shift in AI Regulation Discourse

2:10 Historical Context: Tech Waves & Policy

6:39 The Open Source Debate

13:39 The Chilling Effect & Global Competition

15:00 Changing Sentiments on Open Source

21:06 Open Source as Business Strategy

28:50 The AI Action Plan: Reflections & Critique

32:45 Alignment, Marginal Risk, and Policy

41:30 The Future of AI Regulation & Closing Thoughts

Resources

Find Martin on X: https://x.com/martin_casado

Find Anjney on X: https://x.com/anjneymidha

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

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Follow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg

Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

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Capital, Capitalism, and the Capture of Democracy