Crypto Banter The 4-Year Crypto Cycle Was A HUGE Lie!
Dec 4, 2025
Is the 4-Year Crypto Cycle just a myth? Ran Neuner dives deep into the dissection of this popular belief. He argues that macroeconomic factors like liquidity and central bank policies, rather than halvings, have shaped Bitcoin's price movements. The link between Bitcoin rallies and global liquidity expansions is compelling, with insights into how PMI signals can predict market phases. With institutions leading the charge, this cycle might defy traditional norms. Don’t sell now; you might regret it as a liquidity explosion looms!
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Halving Correlation May Be Coincidence
- The apparent four-year halving cycle likely correlated with other macro forces rather than being the primary driver.
- Ran Neuner shows three cycles were too few data points to conclude causation from the halving alone.
Liquidity Drove Past Bitcoin Rallies
- Major liquidity injections from central banks tracked with Bitcoin's historic rallies across 2013, 2017, and 2020.
- Ran ties QE and global balance-sheet expansion to Bitcoin moving from single digits to tens of thousands.
PMI Predicts Crypto Cycle Phases
- The PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) tracks business-cycle liquidity and aligned with Bitcoin's major moves.
- Ran argues Bitcoin begins its bull when PMI bottoms and breaks above 50, with altcoins surging as PMI exceeds 60.