'It's Going To Get Worse' For Both The Economy & Stocks | Peter Tchir

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Jul 27, 2025

In this discussion, Peter Tchir, the Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, shares his deep insights on the shifting landscape of the economy. He analyzes the unexpected resilience of stocks despite ongoing tariffs and delves into their long-term implications on inflation and consumer behavior. Tchir also highlights the challenges faced by small businesses and the nuanced relationship between automation, job markets, and upcoming economic transitions. His thoughts on investment strategies in light of potential downturns and rising interest rates are particularly eye-opening.

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INSIGHT

Tariffs' Delayed Economic Impact

Tariffs cause delayed economic effects that could worsen the economy in 6-8 months.
Large firms absorb shocks better than small businesses, which are more vulnerable to tariff impacts.

INSIGHT

Small Businesses Face Hidden Struggles

Small and mid-sized businesses bear the brunt of economic challenges more than large corporations.
Their struggles are underestimated by headline economic data, masking underlying weakness.

INSIGHT

Concentration of Wealth and Power

Wealth and market benefits concentrate increasingly in a small top segment, skewing overall economic outlook.
This creates an "I-shaped" economy where most people are left behind while few prosper.

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Earlier this year the markets sold off rather violently on fears that President Trump's new tariffs would send global trade into a tailspin.Fast forward three months and stocks are back to all-time highs, even as it's becoming clearer that these tariffs, in some shape or form, are here to stay.Are tariffs not the grave mistake Wall Street originally thought they were?Or have investors simply decided to stop caring about them?To discuss, we're fortunate to welcome to the program, Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#marketcorrection #bonds #tariffs 0:00 - Current Economic Assessment6:16 - Tariff Lag Effects10:26 - Jobs Market Weakness25:53 - Recession Risks and Policy Outlook35:35 - Rates and Fed Coordination42:42 - Market Outlook and Investments50:50 - Crypto and The GENIUS Act55:59 - Closing and Resources: Adam thanks Tchir, promotes his X handle (@TFMKTS), Academy Securities, and TheStreet.com; encourages subscriptions and financial advisor consultations._____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.