The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series The US Economy Is (Kind of, Sort of) Growing || Peter Zeihan
6 snips
Jan 6, 2026 Recent data shows the U.S. economy is growing faster than expected, but a closer look reveals some troubling trends. Industrial construction spending is falling, signaling a need for more investment. Data centers inflate industrial activity despite their high costs. Aggregate consumption seems steady, yet it's uneven, with the top 10% driving half of all spending. Overall growth appears lopsided and heavily reliant on bubble-prone sectors, raising concerns about economic fragility and policy-driven uncertainty.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Industrial Spending Masked By Data Centers
- Industrial construction spending is falling despite headline GDP strength, signaling weaker real industrial buildup.
- Data centers now capture 30–40% of that spending, inflating growth metrics while the broader industrial base declines.
Tariffs Inflate Nominal Growth
- Tariff-driven higher input costs (steel, wood, copper) raise spending without increasing real output, making GDP look stronger.
- Higher prices for inputs make construction spending count as growth even if less actual capacity is built.
Assess Real Capacity, Not Just Spending
- Watch industrial construction composition, not just totals, to gauge real capacity growth.
- Discount headline spending increases if they stem from higher input prices or narrow subsector booms like data centers.