The Market Call - Week Ending 4th July 2025

Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans discuss the week's macro market news and developments, comparing the plight of the Trump and Starmer administrations, which are six months and a year in, respectively. The differing outcomes, at least in part, reflect the degree to which the bond markets constrain the UK government more than the US.

We are halfway through 2025 and have had a turbulent Q2. Equity markets are recovering everywhere, but persistent dollar weakness has made the US seem less exceptional than usual.

In H2, the pressure will be on Scott Bessent to deliver some magic in the treasury markets and refinance well over a $1 trillion of longer-duration paper. The stronger-than-expected labour market, as measured by the non-farm payrolls yesterday, is not helpful. He is still wishing for a 10-year rate below 4.

The UK equity market remains attractive, and there are signs that the IPO market may reopen during H2. Let's see.

We discuss Secure Trust Bank's decision to put its motor finance activity into run-off, which investors appear to have welcomed. However, it is a sign that the regulations are driving this lending activity away from the transparency of the PLC world, which would be a shame.

Looking ahead, we have some UK GDP data, and Wednesday marks the deadline for Trump's tariffs, which could lead to increased volatility.