Real Vision: Finance & Investing Global Macro: The Next Era of Market Growth ft. Ben Miller
Jan 22, 2025
The conversation dives into major macroeconomic scenarios shaping markets by 2025. They discuss the effects of political changes on economic stability and real estate's potential soft landing. Attention shifts to the unique challenges of private versus public markets, with insights on banking regulation's role in fostering growth. The transformative influence of AI on real estate and tech dynamics is highlighted, alongside the risks of high leverage in private credit. These factors collectively set the stage for the next era of market growth.
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Market Focus on Trump's Economic Policies
- The market's focus is on Trump's economic policies regarding tariffs, taxes, and bank deregulation.
- Clarity on these policies is crucial for making macroeconomic predictions, especially due to market concerns about deficits and long-term interest rates.
Market vs. Fed on Interest Rates and Deficits
- The market expects higher interest rates for a longer duration than the Fed's projections, leading to a significant divergence.
- High deficits are a major concern, and their reduction is crucial for a soft landing, especially with market fears of potential increases.
The Deficit Addiction and its Long-Term Impact
- Short-term rewards from deficits create an addiction, hindering long-term economic health.
- Addressing structural issues like Social Security, Medicare, and defense spending is crucial but lacks political appetite.