The Intelligence from The Economist Truce story: (a sketch of) a Trump-Xi trade deal
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Oct 31, 2025 
Jeremy Page, Chief China correspondent for The Economist, and Shashank Joshi, Defense editor at The Economist, dive into the uneasy truce between Trump and Xi. Page analyzes the trade deal's superficialities, highlighting unresolved issues like TikTok and Taiwan. Joshi shifts gears to the booming private military company sector, discussing the diverse backgrounds of mercenaries and the reasons states contract them. Their insights reveal both the fragility of international agreements and the complex dynamics of modern conflict.
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Temporary One-Year Trade Truce
- Trump and Xi agreed a one-year rollback on many recent trade measures, reducing immediate escalation risk.
- The truce postpones export controls, tariffs, and port measures but stops short of resolving core strategic tensions.
Key Elements: Rare Earths, Soybeans, Fentanyl Tariffs
- China delayed new rare-earth export controls and resumed soybean purchases while the US postponed reciprocal tariffs.
- The deal includes halved fentanyl-related tariffs and pauses on measures tied to shipping and ports for one year.
Big Omissions And Lingering Uncertainty
- Major issues were omitted or unclear: TikTok's US transfer, semiconductor exports, Chinese investment, and Taiwan.
- Even if signed, the truce leaves the US still carrying high tariffs and uncertain longevity, risking annual renegotiation.
