Stephanie Roth is the chief economist at Wolfe Research, and was previously an economist at JPMorgan. She joined Phil Rosen on Full Signal to discuss how AI is changing jobs and the labor market, whether AI is driving productivity gains, Big Tech’s capex plans, its impact on young people finding jobs, comparisons to dot-com, and what investors are missing today.

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0:00 - Intro

0:30 - Labor market outlook

2:50 - AI and layoffs

3:57 - AI driving new jobs, productivity

6:30 - Broad AI adoption in economy

7:15 - Youth unemployment

11:00 - Public & Generated Assets

12:07 - AI capex and GDP

15:30 - Economic vs. asset price bubble

16:55 - AI isn’t dot-com bubble

17:50 - What investors misunderstand on AI

19:16 - K-shaped economy

22:55 - Consumer spending

25:55 - Inflation and tariffs

26:55 - Affordability and consumer sentiment

28:00 - Bias of sentiment surveys

30:30 - New Fed Chair, Fed independence

33:55 - White House policy

36:48 - What economists got wrong on tariffs

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