How Would Mass Deportations Affect the US Economy?
Jan 15, 2025
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The discussion delves into the potential economic fallout from mass deportations in the U.S. It highlights the significant labor shortages that could arise, particularly in sectors like agriculture and construction. Historical context enriches the examination of immigration policy shifts and their impacts on the workforce. Demographic changes and local economic effects, including education and housing, are also explored. The conversation raises critical questions about the balance between immigration enforcement and economic stability as the U.S. navigates these complex challenges.
Mass deportations could lead to substantial GDP loss and inflation due to the removal of millions of essential workers from the economy.
The contrasting immigration policies of Trump and Biden highlight ongoing political complexity and economic challenges surrounding labor shortages and sector impacts.
Deep dives
Immigration Trends and Public Perception
In 2024, immigration emerged as a central topic among voters in both Europe and the United States, marking a significant shift in public sentiment. A Gallup survey indicated that for the first time since 2005, the majority of Americans favored reducing immigration, with opposition levels reaching the highest since 2001. The U.S. has the largest foreign-born population in the world, making up 14.3% of the population, where Mexicans account for 23% of immigrants. This changing viewpoint comes against the backdrop of ongoing debates about legal and illegal immigration, particularly the estimated 11 to 13 million undocumented immigrants residing in the country.
The Impact of Immigration Policies
The podcast discusses the contrasting immigration policies of former President Trump and President Biden, highlighting the political complexity surrounding immigration reform. Trump’s administration focused on stringent measures, including the promise to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border and implement mass deportations, whereas Biden aimed to address migration drivers and initially maintained some of Trump's policies. In 2023, a record high of almost 2.5 million apprehensions occurred at the southern border, reflecting ongoing challenges amid shifting political landscapes. Critics point out the economic implications of Trump's deportation plans, warning that removal of millions of workers could exacerbate labor shortages and inflate prices across various sectors.
Economic Consequences of Deportation
The potential economic fallout from mass deportations is substantial, with estimates suggesting such actions could lead to significant GDP loss and inflationary pressures. With up to 8-10 million undocumented immigrants potentially facing deportation, the demand for goods and services would decline, severely impacting local economies. Studies have shown that past deportation measures resulted in job losses for U.S.-born workers, as unauthorized immigrants often fill roles that are less appealing to native-born citizens. Additionally, the agricultural sector, heavily reliant on unauthorized labor, could suffer severely, resulting in rising food prices and disrupted supply chains, demonstrating the interconnectedness of immigration and economic stability.
Donald Trump has promised to conduct “the largest deportation effort in American history,” no matter what it costs—but the price tag may be bigger than expected.
In today's video we look at a history of US border control and the economic costs of deporting more than six percent of the US workforce while the US workforce ages.
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Links:
Chloe East - The Labor Market Effects of Immigration Enforcement: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10.1086/721152
Chloe East - Unintended Consequences of Immigration Enforcement: https://jhr.uwpress.org/content/early/2022/05/02/jhr.0920-11197R1
Warwick McKibbin presentation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QV3lxKYIDFE
What Will Mass Deportations Look Like: What Will Mass Deportations Look Like?
How many people did Obama, Biden and Trump actually deport? https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-deportation-numbers-obama-biden-b2649257.html
Sarah O’Connor Article: https://www.ft.com/content/2bb60c40-efe1-48d1-9c9e-b9ff672ce349
Who is right about ‘Maganomics? https://www.ft.com/content/76ee5977-1f16-470b-86a5-400209aad5a3
What we know about unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/07/22/what-we-know-about-unauthorized-immigrants-living-in-the-us/
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