Sandy Trust, an actuary and lead author on papers linking economies to Earth systems, discusses alarming insights on the impending collapse of both our global economy and ecological systems if current trajectories persist. He critiques existing climate policies for their flawed risk assessments, stressing the urgency for a systems approach to understanding climate impacts. Trust also emphasizes the necessity for credible government policies and realistic carbon budgeting, warning of a potential 50% drop in GDP by 2050 due to climate change.
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insights INSIGHT
Implied Risk Acceptance
Current climate policies imply an acceptance of certain risks, even aiming for 1.5-2°C warming.
Policymakers underestimate the potential fallout, assuming they can manage it.
insights INSIGHT
Flawed Methodology
Climate policy risk methodology is flawed because it's not systemic.
It analyzes risks in isolation, ignoring cascading effects and tipping points.
question_answer ANECDOTE
Amazon Tipping Point
The Amazon rainforest tipping point is estimated at 3°C warming, considering only climate.
Deforestation lowers this to 1.5°C, highlighting the interconnectedness of risks.
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Climate Endgame is a paper that explores the potential for catastrophic climate change impacts. It introduces a risk impact scale to assess the severity of potential outcomes at different warming levels. The paper emphasizes the need to consider high-impact, low-probability events and advocates for a more comprehensive understanding of climate risks. It provides a taxonomy of risk terms to facilitate better communication and risk management in the face of climate change.
Planetary Solvency
Planetary Solvency
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Sandy Trust
Planetary Solvency is a report that assesses the ability of Earth's systems to support human society and the global economy. It highlights the flawed risk methodologies in climate change modeling and the underestimation of risks. The report emphasizes the need for a systemic approach to risk assessment, considering interconnectedness between climate change, economic impacts, mortality, nature, and societal factors. It warns of potential catastrophic risks if current trajectories continue and advocates for immediate policy action.
Willful blindness
Why We Ignore the Obvious at Our Peril
Margaret Heffernan
In 'Willful Blindness', Margaret Heffernan delves into the psychology behind why people and institutions often choose to ignore or overlook evident, harmful information or truths. The book uses real-world examples such as the Enron scandal, the Catholic Church sexual abuse cases, and the BP oil spill to explain how willful blindness develops and its consequences. Heffernan discusses various factors contributing to this phenomenon, including cognitive dissonance, obedience to authority, love, fear, and the need for social acceptance. She argues that while willful blindness is a natural human tendency, it is possible to overcome it through intention and attention, and by challenging biases and encouraging debate.
Ecological collapse doesn’t happen in a vacuum.
Our global economy will also collapse by up to 50% before the end of this century if we continue as we are. That’s the latest diagnosis by an interdisciplinary team who are sounding the alarm that current national climate policies are not enough to mitigate the damage to ecology and economy. The Institute of the Faculty of Actuaries and the University of Exeter today published Planetary Solvency which warns that widely used but deeply flawed assessments of the economic impact of climate change render policymakers blind to the immense risk created by current trajectories.
Sandy Trust, actuary and co-author, joins me to explain how these flawed assessments play out in climate policies and an alternative methodology for calculating risk laid out in the report. This is Sandy’s second time on the show, as in 2023 he joined me to explain how the world of finance underestimates the destruction climate change will cause on our economy after 1.5 degrees of warming. The update is no less frightening—especially, as Sandy reveals, given policy makers have little interest in heeding the warnings of experts.
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