Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib: Five likely scenarios for Gaza in 2026

Welcome to What Matters Now, a weekly podcast exploring key issues currently shaping Israel and the Jewish World, with host deputy editor Amanda Borschel-Dan speaking with Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, the head of Realign For Palestine, an Atlantic Council project that challenges entrenched narratives in the Israel and Palestine discourse.

This week, we dive into the five likely scenarios that could play out in Gaza during 2026, which Alkhatib recently proposed on his social media channels.

According to Alkhatib, the five proposals all "undermine Hamas severely and massively change the calculus and geostrategic landscape following the Trump-sponsored ceasefire in October, which has temporarily halted the war."

The five proposals include: A mutiny from Hamas’s ranks within Gaza due to economic and cost-of-living pressures; a significant rise and empowerment of anti-Hamas militias in different areas of the Gaza Strip; mass protests and large-scale uprisings against Hamas throughout the Gaza Strip by civilians; a mass exodus of civilians, from the Red Zone controlled by Hamas behind the "yellow line" into the Israeli-controlled Green Zone; and a successful international stabilization force (ISF) deployment with the mandate of battling and demilitarizing Hamas.

We go through each scenario point-by-point throughout the conversation, leaving time for a reader's question or two.

And so this week, we ask Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, what matters now.

What Matters Now podcasts are available for download on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. This episode was produced by the Pod-Waves.

IMAGE: Palestinians walk along a street past a tent camp in Gaza City, December 17, 2025. (AP Photo/Jehad Alshrafi)

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