The Drone Wars: How Consumer Tech Is Shaping the Ukraine War
Dec 15, 2023
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Experts Michael Kofman, Rob Lee, and Andrey Liscovich discuss the impact of FPV drones on the Ukraine war, including advantages and disadvantages, challenges in developing munitions, electronic warfare strategies, and the changing nature of warfare. They highlight the need for Western militaries to learn from this conflict and the role of drones in naval warfare and ground operations.
FPV drones have revolutionized warfare in Ukraine, providing a useful offset in artillery and ammunition shortages.
Assault tactics have evolved in response to the threat posed by FPVs, with a shift towards smaller-scale platoon and assault group tactics.
Drones, including FPVs, are part of an ongoing technological shift in warfare, but they are not a complete substitute for traditional military capabilities.
Deep dives
The Role of FPV Drones in Ukraine's War Effort
FPV drones have proven to be a useful offset in Ukraine's artillery and ammunition shortages. While they cannot fill the role of artillery, they are being used defensively to take out armored vehicles and infantry, as well as in support of offensive operations. Drones have steadily taken over the tactical battlefield at the 10 to 15 kilometer range, working in addition to other capabilities like minefields and anti-tank guided missiles. However, there are limitations to drone usage, such as difficulty in mass deployment and interference with signal transmission. Drones have revolutionized warfare, but there is still room for improvement as the technology continues to mature.
The Impact of FPV Drones on Assault Tactics
FPV drones have influenced the evolution of assault tactics in Ukraine. Due to the threat posed by FPVs, Ukrainian forces have shifted towards smaller-scale platoon and assault group tactics instead of large-scale combined arms assaults. The use of FPVs in conjunction with infantry units has become crucial, providing surveillance, intelligence, and target acquisition. However, FPVs have their limitations, such as vulnerability to electronic warfare (EW) interference and reduced effectiveness in foggy or overcast conditions. Adaptations and counters to FPVs, as well as advancements in EW technology, are ongoing, shaping the future of warfare.
The Changing Landscape of Warfare and the Role of Drones
Drones, including FPVs, are part of an ongoing technological shift in warfare. While they have made significant impacts on tactics and combat operations, drones are not a complete substitute for traditional military capabilities. Drones offer unique advantages, such as precision strikes and real-time battlefield intelligence, but they cannot control or take terrain. Tactical adaptations, force structure changes, and the integration of other autonomous vehicles are occurring. However, the role of drones must be balanced with other factors, such as mass firepower and ground forces. The development and use of commercial systems have also contributed to the changing landscape of warfare, making technological capabilities more accessible and affordable.
Adaptation and Innovation in Warfare
The podcast episode discusses the evolving nature of warfare and the role of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in conflicts. One key point highlighted is the ability of different military units to access UAV feeds, enhancing situational awareness for commanders. The comprehensive coverage provided by UAVs also makes it challenging for forces to mass armor or troops without being detected. Another important insight is the need for rapid adaptation in response to new technologies and tactics observed in conflicts. The podcast emphasizes the need for Western governments to learn from the experiences in Ukraine and develop suitable countermeasures and innovative systems to address emerging threats.
The Role of FPVs and Challenges in Warfare
The podcast delves into the growing role of First Person View (FPV) drones, such as the Mavic series, in warfare. FPVs offer a cost-effective means to conduct reconnaissance and target specific positions, creating a significant impact even without payload. It is highlighted that FPVs are cheaper and more accessible than traditional military systems, making them attractive to both state actors and terrorist groups. The episode discusses the challenges faced in countering FPVs, such as the difficulty of targeting jamming devices due to their low cost and ease of replacement. Additionally, the discussion touches upon the importance of supply chain independence and the need for Western countries to support Ukraine in scaling up production of effective counter-UAV systems while developing their own innovative technologies and tactics.
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Rob Lee (Foreign Policy Research Institute) and Andrey Liscovich (UkraineDefenseFund.org) how the proliferation of FPV drones and countermeasures to them are changing the nature of warfare in Ukraine. They discuss:
- Advantages and disadvantages of these new platforms
- The development of new tactics and force structures employing them
- The challenge Ukraine is having with developing and procuring munitions for drones
- The cat-and-mouse battle in electronic warfare countermeasures used by both sides
- Whether FPVs provide an advantage to defense or offense
- The implications of drones on counterbattery and naval warfare
- How Ukraine has emerged as a testing ground for these new technologies and the vital need for Western militaries to better absorb lessons learned from this conflict
- How drones are becoming the cheap 'generic', albeit lesser capable, alternatives to expensive 'brand-name' weapon systems such as missiles, torpedoes, ISR platforms, etc.
Andrey also discussed how his 501c(3) charity, UkraineDefenseFund.org, is helping train new Ukrainian FPV operators at the total cost of just $500 in 3 weeks.
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