European chemical producers may have to keep paying high energy prices as geopolitical instability impacts sentiment more than the fundamentals of supply and demand.
- Europe spot electricity prices up 76% this year, ICIS TTF gas price up 40%
- Fear drives markets more than fundamentals which remain bearish
- Demand is reduced compared to five-year average, supply plentiful
- Above average temperatures forecast into December in Europe
- Gas storage around 90%, well above 5-year average
- New sources of US, Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) due onstream in 2025
- Renewable energy will ramp up quickly in Europe
- Donald Trump may increase LNG supply by unfreezing projects
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