Frontline special - military analyst Matthew Savill of RUSI
Jan 11, 2025
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Matthew Savill, Director of Military Sciences at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), offers keen insights on the evolving battlefield tactics in Ukraine, especially in Kursk. He discusses how Ukraine is innovating with electronic warfare and drone technology to challenge Russian forces. Savill also evaluates the potential impact of the incoming Trump administration on U.S. support and Ukraine's diplomatic strategies, reflecting on Trump and Zelensky's complex relationship and the uncertainties surrounding foreign policy.
Ukraine's battlefield tactics are evolving amid high personnel costs, with mixed tactics of unsophisticated assaults and advanced technology complicating the conflict.
The potential shift in U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration raises concerns for Ukraine's military support and necessitates strategic advocacy from its leadership.
Deep dives
Current Situation in Ukraine
The ongoing war in Ukraine reflects a complex and challenging landscape, as Russia continues to make incremental advances, albeit at a high cost in terms of personnel and equipment. Ukraine is primarily in a defensive position, facing pressure from Russian offensives, particularly around the region of Kursk. Despite recent small-scale operations by Ukraine aiming to regain some initiative, these attempts are perceived as limited in scope. The situation is further complicated by underlying issues within Ukraine's military, including challenges in generating new forces and maintaining adequate supplies.
Tactics and Technology on the Battlefield
The conflict showcases a blend of both unsophisticated tactics, like mass assaults, and advanced technological warfare, with both sides adapting their strategies continually. The use of drones and electronic warfare has become pivotal, allowing Ukraine to disrupt Russian capabilities and gain tactical advantages. Innovations such as fiber optic cables linked to drones allow for better surveillance and strike capabilities, although scaling these tactics remains a challenge. As both sides manage their resources and technology, the evolution of battlefield dynamics continues to shape the conflict.
Implications of U.S. Foreign Policy
The uncertain U.S. foreign policy approach under the upcoming Trump administration poses additional challenges for Ukraine, as officials are left speculating about potential changes in support. Trump's history of skepticism towards ongoing aid and shifting priorities raises concerns about Ukraine's ability to secure necessary resources. Ukrainian leadership aims to present compelling arguments to the new administration in hopes of securing continued support for the war effort. The transactional nature of Trump's foreign policy emphasizes the need for Ukraine to continually demonstrate its value to U.S. interests to ensure sustained assistance.
In this extended Frontline conversation, RUSI's director of military sciences - Matthew Savill - unpacks Ukraine's changing battlefield tactics in Kursk and contemplates how the incoming Trump administration could change the conflict.
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