S4 Ep22: How to policymakers interpret different types of evidence?
Jun 5, 2024
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Researcher Eva Vivalt and expert Tim Phillips discuss how policymakers interpret evidence, focusing on biases like confirmation bias. They explore the importance of balancing local knowledge with formal evidence for better policymaking decisions, emphasizing tailored presentation of evidence for policymakers. The conversation highlights the significance of collaboration between researchers and policymakers in translating research findings into actionable policies.
Acting on rigorous data is essential for better policies.
Understanding biases is crucial for effective decision-making.
Deep dives
Importance of Evidence in Policy Making
Policy decisions are influenced by rigorous data on what interventions work, but this data must be acted upon to translate into better policies. Researchers provide evidence, while practitioners and policymakers implement projects based on this evidence. Policymakers need to update their beliefs using information from impact evaluations to make better policy decisions.
Biases in Policy Making
Policymakers, researchers, and practitioners are prone to biases like confirmation bias and asymmetric optimism, affecting how they interpret and value evidence. These biases can lead to undervaluing or overvaluing evidence, influencing decision-making and resource allocation. Understanding and addressing these biases are crucial to improving policy outcomes.
Value of Local Knowledge in Decision-Making
Policymakers prioritize local knowledge and evidence, showing a strong preference for programs with smaller estimated effects if recommended by local experts or based on local impact evaluations. However, relying solely on local evidence can have limitations, as variance in results can persist even within the same country. Balancing local knowledge with external evidence and understanding biases plays a significant role in effective policy decision-making.
How does new evidence influence the beliefs of policymakers, and when do hidden
biases of beliefs lead to bad policy decisions? There is more rigorous empirical
evidence on which interventions work than ever. But that doesn’t translate into better
policy unless a policymaker acts on it. Eva Vivalt and Tim Phillips offer advice to
researchers on how to present their insights.
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