Ep 59: John Hempton - Central Banks aren't the answer to Coronavirus
Mar 15, 2020
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Join John Hempton, an equity manager at Bronte Capital known for his insightful investment strategies, as he discusses the real crisis facing markets: COVID-19. He argues that central bank stimulus won't solve a virus problem—scientific intervention is essential. The conversation highlights stark differences in how countries are managing the pandemic. John shares how his fund thrived during market turbulence, advises investors to adopt a long-term view, and underscores the importance of prioritizing public health over financial fixes.
John Hempton argues that central bank stimulus can't resolve COVID-19's economic impact, emphasizing the need for scientific solutions like vaccines.
The podcast highlights the importance for investors to maintain stable positions and focus on high-quality businesses amidst financial market volatility.
Deep dives
Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected financial markets worldwide, leading to one of the largest declines in equity markets recorded. As of mid-March, many investment managers have shown poor performance, with few exceptions, such as John Hempton of Bronte Capital, who has managed to maintain gains. The pandemic's effects are unprecedented, causing cancellations in sporting events and heightened media engagement as various countries respond to the crisis. The uncertainty surrounding the virus's impact presents a challenging environment for money managers who aim to provide reasonable investment returns amidst high volatility.
Diverse Global Responses to the Crisis
Responses to the pandemic have varied dramatically among countries, with Singapore exemplifying effective management through strict quarantines and thorough contact tracing for infected individuals. By contrast, countries like Iran have struggled with transparency and effective crisis management, resulting in far worse outcomes. The contrast highlights a spectrum of possibilities: effective containment resulting in minimal fatalities versus catastrophic failure leading to mass casualties. The ability of nations to handle the outbreak is critical, as the outcomes not only affect public health but also have profound implications for their economies and financial markets.
Volatility and Market Dynamics
Market dynamics have shifted significantly, characterized by heightened volatility and dramatic losses in equity markets, with European stocks dropping almost 19% in just one week. The VIX index, which measures market volatility, surged significantly during this period, indicating that traders expect substantial price fluctuations. Protection strategies that were inexpensive a month ago are now costly as volatility levels spike, reflecting widespread uncertainty among investors. As financial markets continue to react nervously, the challenge remains for fund managers to navigate these uncertainties while protecting their clients' investments.
Adapting Investment Strategies
Investment strategies must adapt to the evolving landscape created by the pandemic and its economic repercussions. The importance of managing personal risk is emphasized, particularly for vulnerable populations, while also making informed decisions in volatile financial waters. Investors are advised to retain stable positions and avoid risk from speculative investments, focusing instead on high-quality businesses that provide a steady cash flow. This approach emphasizes a balanced perspective on both financial health and personal well-being, acknowledging that the ultimate goal is maintaining stability and resilience throughout uncertain times.
In John Hempton’s eyes, what is occurring in financial markets is not an economic problem that can be solved through central bank stimulus. It’s a virus problem, and as a virus problem, it can only be solved through scientific intervention such as vaccines. John believes that the measures taken by central banks may cause more harm than good and that over the next 4 weeks we will see COVID-19 tip its hand to show us the full extent of its impact.
In this special episode of Inside the Rope, David joins John Hempton of Bronte Capital to discuss both the health and economic implications that Coronavirus may have on the world and financial markets. Bronte was one of a few global equity managers to profit in February through the addition of downside market protection, in a time when volatility was priced at less than a quarter of what it is now trading at.
However, aside from the health implications and recent volatility in financial markets, John doesn’t think it changes much for investors that are sensibly invested. His recommendation to such investors, sit it out.
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