Podcast Archives - Oxford Institute for Energy Studies OIES Podcast – What Next for Oil Markets?
Aug 21, 2025
Paul Horsnell, Chair of the Board of Governors of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, shares his extensive expertise in commodity analysis. He discusses the evolving oil supply and demand in 2023 and questions the credibility of the 'oil glut' narrative. The dynamics of inventory building across OECD countries are explored, alongside the surprising stability of oil market volatility amid geopolitical tensions. Additionally, he offers insights into OPEC+'s strategic cuts, the future of U.S. shale oil, and the interplay between financial and physical oil markets.
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Early OIES Mentorship
- Paul Horsnell recounts joining OIES in the 1980s and learning from senior oil experts there.
- He credits mentors like Robert Mabro and colleagues for shaping his early energy career.
Recurring Forecast Biases
- Forecasts repeatedly overstate demand pessimism and non-OPEC supply optimism, causing recurrent recalibrations.
- Markets often outperform gloomy forecasts because demand has tended to be stronger than expected.
Missing Barrels Often Model Error
- The 'missing barrels' argument often masks model miscalibration rather than hidden stockpiles in non‑OECD locations.
- Small percent errors in supply or demand produce large apparent inventory mismatches in balanced models.