Should we trust economic data? With Danielle DiMartino Booth
Feb 14, 2024
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Economic expert Danielle DiMartino Booth discusses Fed Chairman Powell's rate decisions, the reliability of CPI data, and the importance of real earnings over retail sales. The podcast delves into the yield curve inversion, implications for investors, analysis of Bitcoin's impact on inflation, and strategies for navigating the volatile market.
Jay Powell aims to maintain high rates to shrink balance sheet, utilizing disappointing data for leverage.
Concerns over CPI accuracy and trustworthiness as it lags and doesn't reflect real prices accurately.
Deep dives
Jay Powell's mission to shrink the balance sheet and keep rates high
Jay Powell's mission as the Federal Reserve chair is to keep rates high and shrink the size of the balance sheet. Any disappointing data that he knows will fade gives him ammunition to achieve this mission.
Lack of trust in CPI and the lagged data
There are concerns about the accuracy and trustworthiness of the CPI data. The CPI is known to be lagged and doesn't always reflect the real prices on the ground. For example, hotel rates have been declining, but the CPI still shows a big pop in hotel prices.
Predicting rate cuts and their impact on the market
It is anticipated that rate cuts may be delayed until June, possibly even September. While the market may be disappointed with only three rate cuts this year, it's important to note that the Fed is still in a tightening mode due to balance sheet shrinkage, which will have a lag effect on the economy. The bond market may experience knee-jerk reactions, and longer maturity treasury yields may face downside pressure as the policy of higher for longer continues.
Danielle DiMartino Booth on why Fed Chairman Jay Powell wants to keep rates high (1:15). Should we trust the CPI and other economic data coming out? (3:30) Stubbornness of the yield curve inversion (14:20) Real earnings running negative more important than headline retail sales. (17:15)
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