Ken Pollack, a senior fellow at AEI, discusses Iran's political landscape, succession plans, and challenges faced by the regime. Topics also include covert actions in Iran, conspiracy theories, Biden's foreign policy, and global governance issues.
The death of Iran's president has minimal impact on the country's policy direction as the Supreme Leader holds greater influence.
Succession planning in Iran has become more uncertain following Raisi's death, leading to a potential shift in leadership dynamics.
International organizations' structures can be manipulated by smaller nations using moral authority and international law to constrain superpowers.
Deep dives
Implications of the Leader's Death on Iran's Policy Path
The death of Iran's president, although significant in the long term for potential succession implications, is inconsequential in affecting Iran's current policy path. While the president had limited powers compared to the Supreme Leader, the larger issues within Iran's internal and external policies are determined more by the Supreme Leader. The president's demise does not alter Iran's trajectory in terms of its autocratic and kleptocratic tendencies, nor does it shift its foreign policy objectives.
Potential Succession Consequences
Raisi's role as president was aligned with the Supreme Leader's potential succession plans. The Supreme Leader favoring Raisi as a successor signaled a shift in Iran's leadership dynamics. Raisi's death highlights the opaque nature of Iran's succession process, creating uncertainty around the future Supreme Leader. The formation of a three-person council, including the president, hints at a possible succession strategy.
Speculation around Internal Dynamics in Iran's Leadership
Speculation surrounding Raisi's removal as a potential successor by the Guardian Council adds complexity to Iran's internal leadership dynamics. The significance lies in the potential impact on succession plans post the Supreme Leader's tenure. Raisi's positioning within the leadership hierarchy points to broader implications for Iran's future political landscape.
Challenges in US-Iran Relations and Policy Response
The ongoing challenges in US-Iran relations stem from fundamental ideological differences and geopolitical conflicts. Efforts to improve relations are hindered by Iran's anti-American stance and aggressive regional policies. The US administration's handling of the Israel issue reflects a wavering stance, influenced by political dynamics rather than a cohesive foreign policy strategy, further complicating the diplomatic landscape.
International Organizations and Universal Values
Challenges arise from international organizations being based on the concept of universal values, as cultural subtleties can lead to different behaviors that undermine these norms. Weaker countries often use these institutions to restrain stronger ones, leveraging international law to prevent potential invasions. This dynamic creates a landscape where smaller nations can use moral high ground, backed by international law, to constrain superpowers, highlighting the complex interplay of power and morality in global governance.
Prospects of a US-Saudi-Israel Deal
Discussions revolve around the potential deal between the US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, with an emphasis on defense agreements and diplomatic implications. The uncertainty lies in whether the involved parties can navigate complexities and mutual interests to realize a comprehensive agreement. Factors such as regional dynamics, internal politics, and historical precedents, such as past peace accords, play pivotal roles in shaping the negotiations and outcomes of the potential deal.
Ken Pollack, a Remnant all-star and senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, joins Jonah for an extended discussion on the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and the race to be the supreme leader’s successor. The two also get into the various Iran appeasement campaigns, Biden’s approach to Israel, and the necessity of the United Nations.