Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: January 16, 2025
Jan 16, 2025
David Lebovitz, VP at JP Morgan Asset Management, shares market insights and discusses the Federal Reserve's delicate balancing act amid inflation and wage growth. Rich Clarida, former Fed Vice Chairman, dives deep into current economic trends and the challenges of policy communication. Frances Donald, Chief Economist at RBC, analyzes retail sales, highlighting key economic indicators and the mixed signals they send. Together, they navigate the uncertainties of today's economy, touching on fiscal policies, market performance, and the implications for future Fed decisions.
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Rate Cut Predictions
- David Lebovitz expects two Fed rate cuts in 2025 as inflation falls.
- The biggest risks are reaccelerating wage growth or government policies reigniting inflation.
Market Relief and Investment Strategy
- Markets breathed a sigh of relief, but the focus remains on sticky service inflation.
- Lebovitz leans towards risk assets over duration, given the positively sloping yield curve.
Incoming Administration's Priorities
- Trump is expected to prioritize unwinding Biden's policies, then focus on immigration and tariffs.
- Lebovitz believes the tariff talk is part of a negotiation strategy with China.