What will the COP30 climate talks mean for energy?

Sep 1, 2025

In this engaging discussion, Amy Myers-Jaffe, Director at NYU’s Energy, Climate Justice and Sustainability Lab, and Simon Evans, Deputy Editor at Carbon Brief, dive into the lead-up to COP30. They explore the effectiveness of past climate agreements, notably discussing the ongoing rise in greenhouse gas emissions. Key topics include the complexities of international climate pledges, fossil fuel lobbying, and the urgent need for improved carbon pricing strategies. The conversation highlights the critical intersection of energy security and climate action amid geopolitical challenges.

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INSIGHT

Progress Since Paris Is Real But Insufficient

Since Paris emissions projections improved but emissions still rise, the world is better off than a decade ago but far from solved.
Simon Evans argues progress reduced end-century warming estimates from ~3.5–4°C to ~2.5–3°C, not enough for 1.5°C.

INSIGHT

NDCs Matter More Than COP Theater

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by governments matter more for emissions than COP negotiation outcomes.
Simon Evans says the sum of national plans determines real-world emissions more than summit texts in Belém.

ANECDOTE

Gaveled Consensus Isn’t Unanimous

Simon Evans recounts how COP decisions are declared by a gavel yet consensus can include objections.
He explains the UN originally planned votes where consensus failed, but fossil fuel lobbying blocked those procedural rules.

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The COP21 climate talks in Paris in 2015 were hailed as a historic success. They resulted in a global agreement to curb climate change, and set a framework for every country in the world to contribute to achieving that goal.

Ten years on, the conference no longer looks such a triumph. Greenhouse gas emissions are still rising, and so are global temperatures. The Paris agreement’s goals for keeping global warming in check seem to be slipping out of reach.

So what is the world really getting out of the UN’s annual COPs? (The name stands for the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.) Every year, pledges are made and commitments agreed, but real-world changes have not been nearly fast enough to achieve those international goals. COP30 is coming up fast: it will be held in Belém in northern Brazil, a little over two months from now. What can we expect from this latest attempt to drive forward global action on climate?

To look ahead to the meeting, host Ed Crooks is joined by climate and energy journalist Simon Evans, deputy editor at the climate science publication Carbon Brief. Simon and Ed were on the ground in Azerbaijan last year at COP29. They reflect on the outcomes from that meeting, and the progress that has been made – and not made – in the months since then. Regular guest Amy Myers-Jaffe – director of NYU’s Energy, Climate Justice and Sustainability Lab – is also back on the show, asking about the broader context of international efforts on climate change. She raises the question of whether China and the EU have stuck to their commitments under that historic Paris Agreement.

They ask: is COP30 is likely to be a success or a failure? And is it time for a completely new approach to global cooperation on climate?

With the UN strategy for curbing global warming in crisis, Ed, Simon and Amy discuss the effectiveness of COPs, the potential for carbon pricing, and new ideas for strengthening international climate efforts.

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