The Nonlinear Library EA - You probably want to donate any Manifold currency this week by Henri Thunberg
Apr 24, 2024
02:34
Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: You probably want to donate any Manifold currency this week, published by Henri Thunberg on April 24, 2024 on The Effective Altruism Forum.
In a recent announcement, Manifold Markets say they will change the exchange rate for your play-money (called "Mana") from 1:100 to 1:1000. Importantly, one of the ways to use this Mana is to do charity donations.
TLDR: The CTA here is to log in to your Manifold account and donate currency you have on your account before May 1st. It is a smooth process, and would take you <30 seconds if you know what charity you want to support.
There are multiple charities available for donations, that EAs tend to donate to, such as:
GiveWell
Rethink Priorities
EA Funds Animal Welfare Fund
EA Funds Long-Term Future Fund
The Humane League
Against Malaria Foundation
Shrimp Welfare Project
... and many more.
It is not 100% clear to what extent the donation is indeed counterfactual[1], but I believe there is reason to believe you can have positive influence through choosing which charities end up getting this money.
If you I) have an account with Mana on it, II) regularly do charity donations with your own money, then donating your balance now seems to dominate other options.
If you actually want to have some currency on Manifold to make bets with, you can buy it back next week for a cheaper rate than your current donation. I am somewhat unsure of this: it's possible that the value of one charity getting the money over another is not enough to outstrip the degree of counterfactuality discount described in the first footnote.
The reason I am still writing this post, is that I think many people have currency laying around that they never plan to use - but might be a few $10s or $100s of charity donations, and 10x more valuable than it will be next week.
Worth noting (thanks @CalebW for highlighting in comment) is that if you are locked in to positions that are hard to exit, you can get in touch with admins to help resolve your situation more satisfactorily without having to sell at crazy rates.
I apologize in advance for the possibility of:
Claims about Manifold's future that they change their mind about.
Mistaken use of terminology from my side.
Mistaken speculations about donation counterfactuality.
... other mistakes.
^
My understanding: Since the money donated to charity is from a Future Fund grant (?), it can only be used that way rather than to support other business activities. So it might be likely that the allocated funds would eventually go to some charity regardless, and your influence is which one.
Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org
In a recent announcement, Manifold Markets say they will change the exchange rate for your play-money (called "Mana") from 1:100 to 1:1000. Importantly, one of the ways to use this Mana is to do charity donations.
TLDR: The CTA here is to log in to your Manifold account and donate currency you have on your account before May 1st. It is a smooth process, and would take you <30 seconds if you know what charity you want to support.
There are multiple charities available for donations, that EAs tend to donate to, such as:
GiveWell
Rethink Priorities
EA Funds Animal Welfare Fund
EA Funds Long-Term Future Fund
The Humane League
Against Malaria Foundation
Shrimp Welfare Project
... and many more.
It is not 100% clear to what extent the donation is indeed counterfactual[1], but I believe there is reason to believe you can have positive influence through choosing which charities end up getting this money.
If you I) have an account with Mana on it, II) regularly do charity donations with your own money, then donating your balance now seems to dominate other options.
If you actually want to have some currency on Manifold to make bets with, you can buy it back next week for a cheaper rate than your current donation. I am somewhat unsure of this: it's possible that the value of one charity getting the money over another is not enough to outstrip the degree of counterfactuality discount described in the first footnote.
The reason I am still writing this post, is that I think many people have currency laying around that they never plan to use - but might be a few $10s or $100s of charity donations, and 10x more valuable than it will be next week.
Worth noting (thanks @CalebW for highlighting in comment) is that if you are locked in to positions that are hard to exit, you can get in touch with admins to help resolve your situation more satisfactorily without having to sell at crazy rates.
I apologize in advance for the possibility of:
Claims about Manifold's future that they change their mind about.
Mistaken use of terminology from my side.
Mistaken speculations about donation counterfactuality.
... other mistakes.
^
My understanding: Since the money donated to charity is from a Future Fund grant (?), it can only be used that way rather than to support other business activities. So it might be likely that the allocated funds would eventually go to some charity regardless, and your influence is which one.
Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org