Robin Hanson is a leading research of prediction markets, a professor of economics at George Mason University, author of the Elephant in the Brain and the Age of Em, and the writer of the blog Overcoming Bias.

The audio essay of this show discusses the nature and enemies of “common sense” economic progress, as well as the cost-benefit analysis of going after said enemies.

The topics discussed include prediction markets, market manipulation, game theory, global conformity, the timeline and strength of “wokeness”, innovation, internal selection, self-deception, hidden motives, and opportunities for young innovators.

Robin Hanson’s website:

https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/home.html

https://twitter.com/robinhanson

Opening Twitter poll:

The Elephant in the Brain:

https://www.amazon.ca/Elephant-Brain-Hidden-Motives-Everyday/dp/0190495995

The Age of Em:

https://www.amazon.ca/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/1536619590

Pew Research Poll

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/11/09/beyond-red-vs-blue-the-political-typology-2/

Timestamps:2:27 Audio essay

9:43 Interview Starts

15:55 How People (Don't) Prioritize

22:47 Academia vs. Industry Science

24:39 Prediction Markets

31:27 Manipulating the Market

49:14 Working with DARPA

55:01 Polymarket Ban

58:00 Regulatory Environment of Futures

1:06:03 Why Aren't Prediction Markets More Popular?

1:15:02 Self-Deception

1:29:24 Why People Have Conversations

1:33:33 Institutions

1:41:19 Why Do Institutions Rot?

1:44:57 Midwits and the Bozo Explosion

1:47:57 The World Mob

2:01:38 Global Homogenization

2:04:24 The Threat of Populism vs. Elitism

2:13:32 The Peak of Wokeness

2:18:51 Creating Competition

2:23:52 Young Contrarians

2:27:23 Outro

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172. Battleground 44' - Operation Bagration