The Dividend Cafe Monday - November 3, 2025
Nov 3, 2025
In this discussion, market fluctuations are front and center, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq seeing notable ups and downs. A compelling chart on AI CapEx valuation offers insights into current market dynamics. Historical trends suggest that favorable early months can lead to strong finishes for the year. Kimberly-Clark's massive acquisition of Kenview sparks intrigue, especially amid ongoing controversies. Additionally, public policy matters are highlighted, including upcoming Supreme Court hearings on tariffs, while bond yields and sector performance are assessed.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Broader Market Strength Hides Under AI Hype
- Market breadth isn't collapsing despite mega-cap AI leaders driving headlines and valuations.
- The equal-weighted S&P hit an all-time high, signaling broader participation beyond a few giants.
Use History For Context, Not Timing Calls
- Don't rely on short-term historical patterns as investment timing signals.
- Use historical context for perspective, not as a definitive short-term forecast.
Strong Year-To-Date Historically Predicts Year-End Gains
- The first 10 months of 2025 rank 20th best in 80 years, a historically strong start.
- Historically, similar strong starts lead to positive returns in November–December most of the time.