Squawk on the Street Government Shutdown Underway, Negative ADP Jobs Report, Nike Beats 10/1/25
Oct 1, 2025
The discussion kicks off with the implications of the federal government shutdown and its potential impact on jobs data. The ADP report reveals a surprising loss of 32,000 private sector jobs. Nike shines with a strong quarterly performance under CEO Elliott Hill's turnaround strategy. Attention also shifts to Tesla's lease price hike post-EV tax credit expiration, while Ford's hybrid sales surge draws interest. The conversation highlights a growing wave of IPOs, OpenAI's advancements, and new dynamics in the sports betting market.
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ADP Shows Private Payroll Weakness
- ADP reported a surprising private-sector decline of 32,000 jobs in September, the worst since March 2023.
- That unexpectedly weak print pressured Treasury yields and market sentiment into the morning.
Shutdown Can Distort Jobs Data
- A government shutdown can quickly dent the jobs report if furloughs fall into the BLS reference week.
- That risk could push the unemployment rate noticeably higher if furloughs exceed hundreds of thousands.
Use Management Tone To Judge Turnarounds
- Watch for management tone when assessing a turnaround; Elliott Hill set low expectations and emphasized sports fundamentals.
- Use that disciplined messaging as a signal when evaluating Nike's recovery prospects.