This week, we discuss the strong jobs report and why next month is the time to look for weakness, the tariff strategy and how it’s bleeding into economic data, and people missing the forest for the trees in the Trump agenda. We also delve into the Treasury QRA, measuring Treasury market stress and why an intervention right now is a political decision, navigating bear market rallies, and more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NMv_qEEEV88_9ZH8epVSdwfpuv8jUgFn/view?usp=sharing

—

Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

—

Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.

Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com

At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.

Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:40) NFP & Labor Market

(10:31) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ondo)

(11:26) Tariffs & Economic Data

(17:38) Tariff Strategy

(19:59) Unpacking the Trump Agenda

(31:21) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ondo)

(32:38) Treasury QRA & Buybacks

(38:18) Treasury Market Stress & Demand

(44:52) Market Structure & Bear Market Rallies

(51:41) Risk Exposure is a Spectrum

(53:47) MSTR Outlook

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Troubleshooters: The Prisoner on the Devils Island - 02 - Bryssel