Sven Carlin, a savvy value investor and publisher of Value Investing, shares his insights on navigating the tumultuous market. He warns of the risks in the gold market driven by speculation and suggests a cautious portfolio approach. Carlin highlights the overlooked sectors of agriculture and commodities, emphasizing long-term growth and steady dividends. He casts doubt on tech giants like NVIDIA, pointing to their fragile advantages. With a keen eye for inexpensive, quality investments, Carlin stresses the importance of patience and disciplined strategy in tumultuous times.
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insights INSIGHT
Gold Could Hit $10,000 — But It Feels Risky
Sven Carlin thinks gold could reach $10,000 eventually but current ETF-driven exuberance makes it risky.
He recommends trimming allocations when sentiment becomes overly speculative.
volunteer_activism ADVICE
Maintain A Small, Rebalanced Gold Allocation
Own a modest gold allocation (he suggests ~7.5%) and rebalance when it rises.
Trim gold positions on exuberant rallies and buy back when sentiment cools.
insights INSIGHT
Gold Miners Tend To Destroy Capital
Gold miners often destroy capital by chasing growth and M&A when prices rise.
Management incentives and repeated overpromises make miners risky despite higher gold prices.
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Stijn Schmitz welcomes Sven Carlin to the show. Sven Carlin is Publisher of Value Investing YouTube, Podcast, & Research Platform. During their discussion, Carlin offers insights into various investment opportunities and his value investing philosophy across multiple sectors. Regarding gold, Carlin views the current market with caution, noting excessive speculation and ETF inflows. He suggests that while gold might reach $10,000 eventually, the current environment feels risky. He recommends maintaining a modest portfolio allocation and being willing to trim positions when sentiment becomes too exuberant. In the broader market, Carlin sees significant risks, particularly among technology stocks like NVIDIA. He questions the long-term durability of tech companies' competitive advantages and warns about the potential for rapid disruption. He believes the current market is stretched, with cash flows declining as companies invest heavily in AI and other speculative technologies. Carlin finds more attractive opportunities in overlooked sectors like agriculture and commodities. He appreciates businesses with predictable long-term growth, steady dividend yields, and reasonable price-to-earnings ratios. He emphasizes the importance of patience and maintaining a disciplined approach, especially when investing in cyclical industries. His investment strategy focuses on finding undervalued companies with strong fundamentals, preferring businesses trading at low price-to-earnings multiples and offering consistent dividends. He maintains a diversified portfolio and is willing to slowly accumulate positions in sectors like oil, agriculture, and select international markets. A key principle for Carlin is understanding a company's true value and being comfortable buying more when prices drop. He warns against getting caught up in growth narratives and emphasizes the importance of maintaining a clear-eyed view of a company's actual competitive advantages and potential for long-term value creation. Through his research platform, Carlin shares his investment insights, maintaining a portfolio that has compounded just under 15% annually over seven years, with a focus on value investing principles and careful, methodical investment selection.
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