Road fuel availability dampens price sentiment ahead of US driving season
Jun 20, 2024
auto_awesome
Exploring the soft gasoline market amidst high refinery production and rising inventories. Discussion on the impact of returning refinery utilization on oil product spectrum. Analysis of bearish sentiment in gasoline market due to strategic reserve releases and ample supply in various regions.
Gasoline market faces challenges with surplus due to high refinery production.
Refiners shift focus to distillate production as diesel cracks surpass gasoline, impacting market dynamics.
Deep dives
Market Expectations vs. Reality: Gasoline Demand and Prices in 2024
The gasoline market for 2024 faces unexpected challenges despite traditional summer demand. Typically, the summer driving season boosts demand and prices, but this year is different. Demand remains weaker compared to previous years, especially due to the abundant supply. Refineries have ramped up production, leading to a surplus in stocks. The market structure has shifted from backwardation to contango, with refining margins affected, creating a challenging situation for traders.
Supply Side Dominance: Refinery Utilization and Stock Trends
The market reflects a mixed supply-demand scenario, leaning towards oversupply. While demand in the US and Europe is relatively stable but not exceptional, refineries have significantly increased production levels. Refineries in the US, especially in the Midwest, are operating at high utilization rates, contributing to surplus refined products. Major turnarounds in various regions have added to the uptick in supplies, impacting gasoline prices and overall market dynamics.
Shift towards Distillates: Impact on Gasoline and Diesel Markets
The evolving market dynamics have led to a shift in refining strategies towards producing more distillates rather than gasoline. With gasoline demand weaker than anticipated, refiners are focusing on maximizing distillate output due to stronger distillate cracks. This shift has caused diesel cracks to surpass gasoline, contrary to the usual seasonal trends. Refiners are adapting to optimize production amidst changing market conditions, indicating a potential prolonged effect on gasoline and diesel markets.
The Northern Hemisphere summer's regular star of the oil barrel, gasoline, has entered its traditional season of price strength with the market structure in contango and cracks far softer than usual for this time of year. With strong refinery production, rising inventories and a modest demand picture, Joel Hanley and frontline reporters Matthew Tracey-Cook and Kelly Norways examine the key variables currently affecting gasoline markets and discuss the impact of returning refinery utilization on the wider oil product spectrum.