Bloomberg Talks Goldman Sachs Chief Global Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer Talks
12 snips
Apr 8, 2025 Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, shares insights on the potential impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy and the risk of recession. He analyzes the tension between event-driven and cyclical bear markets, exploring how investor perceptions can shape market recovery. Oppenheimer delves into the fragility of market liquidity and profit margins, warning of implications for equity indices. He further discusses how U.S. tariff policies affect global markets and examines the shifting valuations of large-cap tech stocks, including the decline of Apple.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Bear Market Types
- Event-driven and cyclical bear markets both see average equity declines of 30%.
- Event-driven markets fall and recover faster than cyclical ones, which are tied to recessions.
Impact of Uncertainty
- Uncertainty affects markets negatively, causing investors, companies, and consumers to hold back.
- This can cause slowing economic activity where decisions are pulled, hindering growth.
Recession Probability
- Goldman Sachs economists estimate a 45% recession probability in the U.S. over the next year.
- Full tariffs without pullback could trigger a recession with profit falls of 10-20% or more.