The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters PREVIEW: Realpolitik #25 | The Next Financial Crisis with Dan Tubb
Dec 16, 2025
Dan Tubb, a global finance commentator, dives deep into the looming financial crisis that could eclipse 2008. He argues that while central banks have new tools, the problems are more substantial. Discover why Chinese dollar bonds are gaining ground against U.S. Treasuries and how China's gold buying signals a shift in credibility. Tubb uncovers the implications of rising debt yields, the refinancings ahead, and demographic factors affecting fiscal strength. A thought-provoking discussion on how geopolitical shifts might influence global currency strategies.
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Bond Yields Signal Global Credibility Shift
- Bond yields reflect credibility: higher yields mean more perceived stress and risk.
- Markets now sometimes price Chinese dollar bonds similarly to US Treasuries, signaling shifting trust.
Risk-Free Rate Becomes Credibility Contest
- The battle for the risk-free rate is a proxy for which governments retain credibility.
- Dan Tubb argues Western governments may force bond demand via financial repression rather than pay debts honestly.
Chinese Gold Buying Story
- Dan Tubb recounts a fund manager telling him China buys every ounce of domestic gold production.
- He uses this to suggest China may be quietly accumulating far larger official reserves.