Munk Dialogue with Michael Knights: Houthi attacks in the Red Sea
Jan 24, 2024
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The podcast explores the ongoing attacks by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, their relationship with Iran, and the potential of the conflict to escalate into a larger war. It discusses the resilience of the rebels despite previous airstrikes and highlights the impact of their attacks on global trade. The need for a ceasefire and international aid efforts are also examined.
The Houthi movement in Yemen aims to replicate the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran and expand their influence in the region through military capabilities and alignment with the Axis of Resistance.
Addressing the ongoing conflict in Gaza and avoiding escalations with Lebanese Hezbollah are key factors that may influence the Houthi threats and attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea.
Deep dives
Overview of the Houthi Movement in Yemen
The Houthi movement is one of the major power blocks in Yemen and claims to be the legitimate government. They gradually expanded their control in northern Yemen and took over the capital in 2014. The Houthis are a tribal movement with a strong desire to regain power and establish a Zadis revivalist movement. They have received support from Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah, who have provided training, equipment, and ideological inspiration. The Houthis aim to replicate the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran and follow the religious example set by Iran's Supreme Leader. They have evolved militarily, acquiring advanced weaponry and becoming a formidable force with strong ground forces, missiles, drones, and naval capabilities.
Role of the Houthis as a Proxy Army for Iran
While the Houthis are not under the direct control of Iran, they share ideological similarities and align themselves closely with Iranian revolutionary ideals. The Houthi family belongs to a radical faction within the wider Zadis community and seeks to spread the Islamic revolution beyond Yemen. They have received support from Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah to strengthen their military capabilities and expand their influence. The Houthis want to demonstrate their commitment to the Axis of Resistance and surpass other members in promoting the Islamic revolution. However, the Houthis maintain some independence and would ignore Iranian advice if it contradicts their own objectives.
Impact of Houthi Attacks on International Shipping
The recent Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea have caused significant disruptions and economic costs. These attacks have targeted not just oil tankers, but also other consumer goods being transported through this vital trade route. While the airstrikes by the US and its allies aim to weaken the Houthi capabilities, it is unlikely to completely deter their attacks. The Houthis have shown resilience and are motivated by their alignment with the Axis of Resistance. The international community must address the ongoing conflict and work towards a ceasefire in Gaza, as this is a key factor that influences the Houthis' actions. If the Gaza conflict ends and there are no immediate escalations with Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthi threat may subside.
Potential Future Scenarios and Implications
The outcome of the conflict with the Houthis depends on various factors. If the Gaza conflict concludes in the near future and escalations with Lebanese Hezbollah are avoided, the Houthi threat may diminish. However, if the conflict continues, the US and its allies will likely continue targeting Houthi capabilities in Yemen. The aim would be to degrade their military assets and limit their ability to threaten international shipping. This strategy is focused on taking away their tools rather than changing their actions or deterring them. The situation may evolve into a long-term containment effort similar to the 1980s operations against Iranian attacks on international shipping in the Gulf. The Houthi movement will continue to be significant in the geopolitical landscape, and the international community will need to address the implications of their presence in Yemen and the critical waterways they control.
US airstrikes don’t appear to be deterring Houthi rebels in the Red Sea. The Yemen-based militant group has continued their attacks on commercial ships in retaliation to the Israeli offensive against Hamas in Gaza. These violent clashes risk escalating an already tense situation in the Middle East, which in recent weeks has moved beyond Gaza into southern Lebanon, Pakistan, and parts of Iran and Iraq. So what, exactly, do the Houthis want? And how can the US and its allies successfully defend against Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea?
For this we are joined by Michael Knights, one of the most sought after experts on the Gulf States, Yemen, and Iraq. As Michael explains, this battle of the Red Sea is much bigger than a few violent skirmishes, and if not managed properly has the potential to drag the whole region into war.
SOURCES: AP, ABC News
The host of the Munk Debates is Rudyard Griffiths - @rudyardg.
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Senior Producer: Ricki Gurwitz
Editor: Kieran Lynch
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