Stratechery Paradigm Shifts and the Winner's Curse
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Aug 6, 2025 The conversation dives into the rapid shifts in the tech landscape, spotlighting the decline of giants like Microsoft and Nokia due to a lack of innovation. It contrasts their fate with adaptive success stories such as Google and Samsung. The discussion then transitions to the evolving AI infrastructure and its implications, highlighting the role of generative AI and the advancements in hardware performance. Lastly, it delves into how tech giants are navigating these disruptions, emphasizing the importance of staying adaptable in a turbulent environment.
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Apple and Amazon Define Smartphone Era
- The dominant players in tech often emerge in pairs defining paradigms across different eras.\n- Apple and Amazon defined the smartphone era via iPhone and AWS, shaping mobile and cloud computing respectively.
Pride Dooms Microsoft and Nokia
- Microsoft and Nokia failed because they clung to advantages from the previous PC and phone paradigms.\n- Their pride prevented them from adopting Android or iOS ecosystems, dooming their mobile efforts.
Shameless Copying Triumphs
- Samsung and Google succeeded by shamelessly copying Apple’s hardware and software.\n- Ignoring pride and doing what’s right for their company proved strategically superior.