Keeping it Simple with Simplify Asset Management Keeping it Simple | Ep. 44: Cosmic Latte
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Jan 13, 2025 Leland Miller, co-founder of the China Beige Book and an expert on China's economy, joins the hosts to share invaluable insights. They delve into the challenges of interpreting China's economic data and the skepticism surrounding official figures. Miller highlights the shift toward economic stability over high growth rates and discusses recent trends in corporate borrowing. The conversation touches on the complexities of the auto industry, especially with electric vehicles, and examines the geopolitical tensions around Taiwan. Transparency in financial regulations also takes center stage.
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China Beige Book's Approach
- China Beige Book collects private data on China's economy, going beyond official, often misleading statistics.
- It offers detailed insights into various regions, sectors, and firm types, including credit and shadow finance.
Accuracy of Chinese Data
- Official Chinese data often presents a misleadingly positive view of the economy.
- Recent restatements and revisions further erode trust in the accuracy and reliability of these figures.
Incentives for Data Manipulation
- Historically, local officials in China manipulated data to achieve growth targets and secure promotions.
- This behavior stemmed from a system where hitting targets, rather than actual economic performance, was prioritized.