Delve into the intricate world of Russian domestic politics and foreign policy. The discussion highlights climate denial and innovative protests against the war in Ukraine. Insightful analysis on Russia's National Guard reveals its limited role in the conflict and future uncertainties. Explore shifting alliances with Iran and North Korea amidst geopolitical bargaining. Finally, examine the potential for leadership succession and military strategies in a post-war landscape, all while navigating the complexities of regional relations.
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Quick takeaways
Russia's hybrid state combines medieval politics with modern bureaucracy, fostering corruption and undermining government efficiency through kinship and financial networks.
The potential rift between the central bank and the Kremlin raises significant concerns about economic stability and the impact of cronyism on financial management.
Internal conflicts among Russian business elites, exemplified by the Wildberries dispute, reveal deeper divisions and a precarious environment for corporate governance and public safety.
Deep dives
The Hybrid Nature of Russian Governance
Russia operates as a hybrid state, merging medieval court dynamics with modern bureaucratic institutions. The power struggles within this system highlight how those close to Putin utilize kinship and financial networks to influence governmental positions. Key players often install family members or hire proxies to navigate and manipulate bureaucratic corridors, particularly in lucrative areas like procurement and licensing. This widespread practice undermines the state's efficiency, allowing for corruption to flourish and creating a system where wealth trumps merit, to the detriment of the nation's governance.
Economic Implications of Leadership Changes
The conversation around the potential rift between influential figures, such as the central bank governor and the Kremlin, raises concerns about economic stability in Russia. The central bank's role has been pivotal in maintaining market confidence, and any change might lead to falling business trust and economic turmoil. Historically, these shifts are viewed through the prism of cronyism, which poses risks of looting or mismanagement in financial institutions. This scenario underlines the fragility of leadership in managing Russia's economic landscape, revealing the tension between competence and loyalty.
Ongoing Conflicts and Interests in Russian Business
Internal conflicts, such as the violent dispute involving the largest online retailer, Wildberries, illustrate deeper divisions in Russian business and politics. The clash between major stakeholders has seen former partners turn to influential political figures for support, leading to severe implications for corporate governance and public safety. The ongoing battles not only disrupt the market but also reflect a broader struggle for power and influence within the Russian economic elite. Despite setbacks, key players continue to navigate these tensions, indicating a dynamic yet precarious business environment.
Climate Change Challenges and Government Response
Russia faces severe consequences from climate change, with its effects occurring at rates four times faster than the global average. The government acknowledges the threat but lacks effective strategies to mitigate these impacts, focusing instead on superficial measures like reforestation. Many of the proposed remedies are scientifically flawed, suggesting insufficient political will to address the underlying issues. As climate-related disasters mount, the potential economic losses underscore the need for substantial policy shifts away from fossil fuels toward sustainable practices.
Repercussions of Putin's Potential Absence
The discussion surrounding the implications of Putin's potential incapacitation reveals a complex interplay of political maneuvering within the elite. The Russian Constitution provides a formal process for succession, but informal negotiations are likely to govern the real selection of a leader. In the absence of Putin, competing factions may vie for control, possibly leading to a coalition that balances interests rather than a singular strongman. This uncertainty could significantly influence Russia's foreign relations, particularly its stance towards Ukraine, Europe, and the U.S., pointing to a transformative period ahead for Russian politics.
Forgive the tedious title, but this episode is the first of two answering questions set by my esteemed Patrons, covering Russian domestic and foreign policy, with another to follow covering the war and more. Climate change and oligarchic rivalry, Belarusian cunning and Central Asian balancing, all this and a lot more...
The Washington Post article ‘Art of dissent: How Russians protest the war on Ukraine’ is here.
The National Guard report I mention, Putin's Praetorians: The Evolving Role Of The National Guard And Their Capacity To Control The Streets , is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
