Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Introducing AI 2027

Apr 14, 2025
A fascinating exploration of AI’s evolution from 2021 to 2027 delves into the accuracy of a researcher's bold predictions made in 2021. The conversation reveals surprising developments in AI capabilities and raises questions about the global AI arms race, particularly between the US and China. Additionally, a poignant dialogue on the Ethiopian famine highlights the intricacies of model predictions, audience engagement, and the importance of supporting humanitarian efforts, showcasing the blend of technology and global challenges.
Ask episode
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
ANECDOTE

Accurate AI Predictions

  • In 2021, Daniel Kokotajlo accurately predicted many AI advancements in his blog post "What 2026 Looks Like".
  • Despite being written before ChatGPT, the post correctly anticipated events like US chip export restrictions and AI's Diplomacy victory.
INSIGHT

Intelligence Explosion Prediction

  • The AI Futures Project predicts an intelligence explosion by mid-2027, reaching superintelligence by early 2028.
  • This is driven by coding agents boosting AI R&D, leading to rapid automation and potential misalignment risks by 2030.
INSIGHT

Fast Scenario Prediction

  • The AI Futures Project's detailed, 2027-focused scenario represents an 80th percentile "fast" scenario, not their precise median.
  • Even if things unfold differently, the concrete scenario promotes discussion and examination of specific disagreements.
Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode
Get the app